LOS ANGELES (OC).–Plunging from around $90 a barret to under $80, world oil prices improved with the latest pause in the war between Iran and the U.S. When you consider the objectives of any war, there’s really nothing to be accomplished in the current clash between Iran and the United States, with President Donald Trump wanting the Strait of Hormuz open for unfettered business. Since the War started Feb. 28, Iran’s IRGC closed the Hormuz Strait by sending in the IRGC to attack commercial ships with its heavily armed fleet of small swift boats capable, if nothing else, of harassing commercial shipping in the Gulf As of right now, the Hormuz Strait is full of commercial ship waiting to tranit to deliver their cargo to destinations around the world, where some 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies normally travel freely. IRGC has managed to close the Hormuz Strait.
Pausing the war shows that neigher the U.S. nor Iran want to continue the fighting, considering the damage done to the Iranian economy but, more importantly, the depletion of munitions to the Pentagon. Though denied, sort of, by Trump, the Pentagon has been burning throngh record defensive weapons, especially Patriot missle batteries needed to defend U.S. bases around the Middle East. Irn operates more efficiently firing off cheap drones and missiles, at little expense to the Islamic Republic. Worldwide oil prices dropped lik a rock because at this point the war between the U.S. and Iran looks like a face-saving charade. Iran doesn’t want the war calling it only defensive in nature, blaming Trump for the aggression trying to force Iran to open up the Hormuz Strait. Iran’s IRGC would like to control trainsit fees of all commercial ships through the Strait.
So, what exactly does the U.S. want with the IRGC prompting much of the hostility at this point. Iran want’s the U.S. to recognize the IRGC’s sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait, agree to let the IRGC charge what it wants in transit fees. When you consider the debate, it’s no longer over regime change or, for that matter, ending Iran’s nuke program. Trump would be perfectly content to open up the Hormuz Strait at this point, forgoing all the other demands, including Iran releasing the demands to surrendering its 200 stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. Trump wants Iran’s stockpile but he’s be perfectly content to accept opening of the Hormuz Strait. Ending Iran’s embargo would satisfy all sides that its another minor concession to end combat operations. With oi;l traders seeomg tjat Iran and U.S. aren’t interested in an all-out war, the price to crude oil dropped like a rock.
When you consider all the mediation by Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc., you know the differences with Iran are not that great. Trump once thought that the mullah regime was teetering on collapse only to find out that after the Ayatollah’s Ali Khamenei’s death, the regime consolidated power, letting the IRGC handle all the reigme’s security. U.S. officials have no reason to believe the regime is close to collapse when the public has no organized plan for regime change. So, when world oil markets jack up prices based in Iran, it’s artificial at best, knowing that the war isn’t to be taken seriously on both sides. Watching oil prices plummet today shows that capricious nature of global oil trading, really not that different to gold or any other commodity. Oil traders continue to wreak havoc on worldwide oil prices, when, in fact, there nothing to be alarmed about.
Trump and Iran’s Tehran based mullah government need to figure out what they want from continuing to battle each other. If mediators could be helpful to the cause of world peace, they’d figure out a way to settle the conflict by keeping the the Strait of Hormuz open. While the IRGC would like more revenue from transit fees, it’s not worth battling the U.S., in a perpetural war. Instead of pushing Trump to the brink, the Tehran-based mullah regime should work with the IRGC to find another source of income. It does Tehrna no good to have Trump implement another blockade of Iranian commercial ships, preventing Iran from delivering its cargo to global customers, especially China and India. Trump wants an open Strait to endable Arab Gulf States to continue doing business as ususal, not watching its reventua plunge because of the IRGC’s blockade on the Hormuz Strait.
Trump knows that the U.S. has other national security concerns than putting all its egges into the Iranian basket. Trump juggles his tariffs regime while trying to proscute a war that has not clear objectives or end in sight. When global oil markets see the U.S. and Iran pausing combat operations, it tells them it’s not a real war, only politically posturing by the U.S. and Iran. Whatever Trump’s low approval ratings, their not going to get much better between no and the Midterm elections. Democrats and fake news have made the Midterm election about affordability, whether fake or not. Consumers see pump prices rise everytime the U.S. and Iran are actively involved in combat operations. Watching the lull in combat, world oil traders have sold off, dropping the price of oil. Whether that continues is anyone’s guess but the U.S. and Iran don’t look too seriously.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary on national and global news He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
