LOS ANGELES (OC).–Battling Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump finds the war going poorly largedly because Iran fights a cheap war with drone and missiles, leaving the U.S. to expend its resources on a costly conventional military. Trump can’t find a way out of the sticky wicket, largely because Iran fights a guerrilla war against the U.S. while Trump spends a fortune on the conventional military, despleting U.S. munition stockpiles at the same time depleting the Pentagon budget. No matter which way you cut it, Iran isn’t exactly winning the war but, at the same time, can continue firing drone and ballistic missiles at U.S. targets, leaving the current stalement without an end. Trump thought the superior U.S. military would give him the advantage in forcing Tehran back to the peace table. Trump finds Iran in no mood to negotiate, watching the U.S;. squirm.
Getting Yemen’s Houthi rebels involved to close down the Bab-el-Mandab Strait cuts off more lanes for Arab Gulf State to deliver their oil and natural gas to paying customes in European and Asia. Trump has no answers for how to deal with the Houthis or the IRGC that so far has got the best of him in the war. When Iran talksj of winning the war, it’s because the U.S. must spend and fortune mobilizing the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln and George W. Bush carrier task forces, only to fly bombing missions in Iran. But how are Trump’s bombing missions freeing up the Hormuz Strait or, now, the Red Sea’s Bab-el-Manab Strait, choking access to Arab Gulf oil. Unless there is a change in strategy, Trump looks like he’s locked in a stalemate with Iran as long as they possess drones, missiles and rocket launchers. Trump’s war has become inefficient and costly without results.
U.S. and Israel have dealt with the Houtis before, periodically bombing headquarters in Saana, forcing the Iranian-paid terror groun to back down. Trump can’t have it both ways, trying to prosecute a war with Iran and, at the same time, going sideways because of Iran’s terrorist tactics. Only a concerted effort to neutralize the IRGC in the Hormujz Strait can reverse the current stalemate, leaving the Pentagon spending wasteful sums of cash defending Iran’s drones and ballistic missiles. So, when it comes to modern warfare, Iran has followed the Ukraine model, hitting Russia with massive amounts of drones. When it comes to Trump’s approach to taking out desalination plants and energy infrastructure, it’s a long-term prospect, not one likely to yield quick results. So, if Trump wants to speed the war up, he has to find a way to neutralize the IRGC in the Strait of Hormuz.
Crude oil has been spiking on news that Houthis would blocade the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, preventing Saudi and other Arab State tankers from transiting oil and natural gas to the Suez canal. Blockading the Bab-el-Mandab Strait has catastrophic effect on world oil prices, keeping oil traders escalating the cost of crude oil. Brent crude is close to $100 a barrel wreaking havoc in the E.U. Yet no EU country has volunteered to help neutralize the IRGC or Houthis in Yemen. Why has the EU turned its back on Trump, knowing the consequences to the price of oil and natural gas in the EU? Trump won’t admit that he needs a collective effort to deal with looks like a growing stalemate, getting the U.S. nowhere in ending the war. Trump0 can’t end the war until he knows that the IRGC no longer controls the Hormuz Strait, certainly the Bab-ed-Mandab Strait in Yemen.
U.S allies in Europe and Asia have a vested interest in getting oil through the Strait of Hormuz and now Yemen’s Bab-el-Mandab Strait, potentially triggering an oil shock leaving shortages around the globe. Whatever the Pentagon wants in new spending from Congress, they hven’t addressed why the U.S./ gets no support from Europe and Asia when they stand to be more damaged by the current blocades. Iran figure out it fhey control world oil supplies and prices, they have more control than anything Trump seeks. Trump wants Iran in compliance on its nuke program but can’t get the IRGC out out the Hormuz Strait. Without EU and Asian allies joining the fight, how’s the Trump White House suppose to resolvfe the issue? Trump must break through the IRGC blockade and take care of Yemen’s Houthi rebels trying to impose a new blockade in the Bab-ed-Mandab Strait.
Progress toward ridding the Hormuz Strait of the IRGC has slowed to a crawal. Iran likes playing defense, shotting drones and missiles at U.S. targets around the Middle East, at little cost to the Islamic Republic. When it comes to the U.S. military, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth testified to an unsympathetic Congres that he needs more caseh. Hegseth can’t answer how thing are going to change, when Iran continues to hit U.S. targets with cheap drones and missiles. Whatever U.S. strikes to to degrade the Iranian military, it looks like a stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz. Knowing out radar or commeand-and-control centers in the south doesn’t do anything to get rid of the IRGC in the Hormuz Strait. Unless Trump can break the stalemate in the Hormuz Strai, there little chance of commercial ships transiting the Strait. Trump must pivot quickly with is current strategy.
About the Author.
John M. Curtis writes politically netural commentary analyzing spin in natonal and global news. He’s editor of OnlinColumnist.com and author of Dodgng The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
