LOS ANGELES (OC).–Resuming the war with Iran, President Donald Trump served notice that the United States would only take so much treachery from Iran, not abiding by detailed terms of a ceasefire agreement AKA the MOU. Trump got fed up with the IRGC violating terms of the MOU, something he has little control about, since the Tehran-based mullah government no longer controls what the IRGC terror group does in the Gulf. Recently buried Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei put all his trust in the IRGC to protect the Iranian state from enemies like the United States and Israle. Khamenei gave the IRGC outsized power, now faces the undeniable fact that the IRGC calls the shots for the Tehran-based mullah government. Trump thought in mediation with Pakistan and Qatar he had some degree of control in the peace process, only to find out that the IRGC calls the shots.
Like Iranian proxy groups Gaza’s Hamas, Beirut’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, Iraq’s Ketaib Hezbollah, the IRGC runs the show in Iran, leaving peace mediators and Trump nowhere when it comes to peace. Returning to bombing, Trump decided that something must be done to confront the IRGC that keeps firing rockets and drones at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman. Using mobile rocket launchers like other terrorist groups, the IRGC isn’t easily stopped because of the slippery nature of mobile rocket launchers. No matter what the U.S. navy does to neutralize the IRGC, there’s always some terrorist group that has access to a truck or hand fired mobile rocket launchers, making it almost impossible to stop. Trump praised the U.S.military for going after Iran’s mobile rocket launchers but there’s so many launchers left.
Whatever Trump does now, there’s little that can be done to get back to the bargaining table for Pakistani and Qatari mediators. Oil prices spiked to over $78 a barrel, a far cry from the over $120 a barrel seen in the early stages of the Feb. 28 war. World oil traders have come to realize that Iran can’t spark a wider conflict by attacking commercial ships and U.S. assets in air bases around the Middle East. Some Arab Gulf states are beginning to fire back at Iran, even though thay’ve largely stayed out of the conflict. What surprised Trump the most since the war started Feb. 28 is the reluctance of the European Union to stop the IRGC from attacking commercial shipping.in he Gulf. Iran;ps IRGC thinks that it holds control over the Hormuz Strait as long as it can keep attacking vessels transiting the Strait. IRGC wants sovereignty over the Strait to charge arbitrary fees.
Arab Gulf States are starting to strike back against Iran for launching missile and dorne attacks on their territory. When Trump said the U.S. had stopped its attacks in the Gulf, they continued, showing that the Arab Gulf States were finally taking a stand. Why the EU has not joined the fight to open up the Strait of Hormuz is anyone’s guess. EU officials have been reluctant to lend military support to Trump with the Iran War, largely because they didn’t want to seem helping Israel in anyway. Whatever the reasons, the EU has a far more vested interest in opening up the Hormuz Strait because they receive some 20% of their oil and natural gas from the Persian Gulf. U.S. gets next to nothing in fossile fuels the Persian Gulf, showing why really needs the energy. But because Israel initiated the war, the EU wants nothing to do with helping Trump open up the Hormuz Strait.
Gone are any fears that Iran can start a wider regional war, largely because they have no one on their side, certainly not trom the Arab Gulf States. Trump has a master plan to continue the 2020 Abraham accords where he can get peace treaties between Israel and the Arab Gulf States. Given Iran’s hotile actions toward the Guld States, its pushed the Abraham Accords more into reality than ever before. Iran finds itself out on a limb because of its hostile actions toward Arab States and U.S. assets in the region. Iran doesn’t have the military resources to lauch any regional war, despite continuing to fire missiles at innocent commercial ship and U.S. assets in the region. Even with one mobile rocket launcher, Iran can still wreak a lot of damage in the region. Trump wants Iran to know that it cannot win the war, only cause more harm to itself resisting a peace plan.
Whatever fears of a regional war, there’s no one else fighting other than Iran, completely isolated no from all other Arab Gulf States. However Iran whipped up anti-Israeli hatred in the past, the Arab State aren’t going along, knowing they receive technology and medical transferes from Israel, especially for the Arab elite that often use Israeli hospitals for speciality surgerie and life-threatening conditions. Trump has Iran where he wants them, though he’d rather end the military component to stabilize world energy markets, now spiking againt because of renewed conflict. Iran has lost all credibility with Gulf Arab States, now that they’ve seen it lash out at innocent Gulf States. Trump wants Iran to finally give in and accept a peace deal that ends the IRGC’s control over the Hormuz Strait. Iran has no real choice but to go along with what Trump wants to end the war.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically netural commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
