LOS ANGELES (OC).–Iran and the U.S. continue to bicker over key issues during the 60-day post-war negotiation period with President Donald Trump wanting action on Iran’s 1,000 pound stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. Whether or not the fissile material is accecsible in Iran bombed out nuclear facilities is anyone’s guess. What’s known by U.S. intel agencies is that Iran’s capacity to enrich uranium has been grossly degraded with U.S. and Israeli bombing. Iraael’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once referred to Iran as an existential threat to Israel but it’s a whole new ballgame today. Netanyahu knows that whatever threrat Iran posed before in developing an A-bomb, theat’s no longer an imminent threat to the Sate of Israel. Trump needs to recognize that as negations with Iran go forward, he needs to focus on what’s really important to U.S. national security.
Iran believes it has an inherent right as a sovereign nation to enrich uranium for ccivilan, peaceful purposes. Iran got it nuclear reactor designs from Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan, providing the basic task of spinning U.=232 into yellowcake, a refined uranium product that can be spun in the right centrifuges to weapons grade material. Iran claims it never had its sights on building an A-bom something U.S. and foreign nuclear sexperts dispute. Trump doesn’t believe that Iran was not looking at an A-bomb when it spun 60% U-232. But Iran’s lat Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei belived tha uranium enrichment by itself profided deterrence for Iran without building an A-bomb. Trump wants Iran in the 60-day negotiating window to agree to let the U.S. dispose of its 1,000 pound stockpile. Iran has rejected Trump’s intitial demands but continues to keep the nuke issue on the table.
Trump wants Iran to commit to getting rid of its 1,000 pound stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. Trump would like to see the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] renews inspections of all Iranian nuclear sites. Back in 2015, Iran also refused to allow IAEA inspectors to evaluate Iran’s underground enrichment sites, especially military sites. Trump cancelled Obama’s2015 nuke deal precisely because there was no verification or enforcement mechanism to prove Iran was not cheating on nuclear enrichement. While renewing inspects is important to Trump, he knows that after weeks of bombing Iran no longer has the air defense and military capability to defend itself against U.S. or Israeli attacks. So, Iran’s compliance with the MOU should be a necessity to prevent Trump from starting to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure something Trump threatened to do.
One of the biggest sticking points in implementing the MOU is who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Iran insists that it’s in control of the Strait of Hormuz, something outright rejected by Trump that wants the Strait to remain an international waterway. Iran’s claim of sovereignty to the Strait of Hormuz runs counter to every principle of rights to the open seas. Iran wants to charge transit fees sometimes totally millions of dollars, unacceptable to the oil rich Gulf Nations that don’t want to add millions to its shipping costs, onlyh fueling more inflation. So, when it comes to Trump rejecting Iran’s plans to used the Hormuz Strait as a kind of turnpike to rake in transit feeds, he wants no part of it. Iran continues to mess around with the MOU, knowing there’s no provision for Iran to collect transit fees in the Strait. It’s hard to know if Iran uses the Hormuz Strait as a bargaining chip.
Former Iran parliament speaker Mohamad Bagher Ghalibaf, a chief MOU negotiator, says Iran doesn’t want confrontation, only more discussions about resolving conflicts. “We see the future of the region not in confrontation but in interaction and not in elimination but in coexistence. Regional security must be esnsured by the countries of the region themselves,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in Abu Dhabi, said there no condition that Iran could assert sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait. “ It’s an international waterway. No country is allowed to change tolls or fees on an international waterway,” Rubio said. No Arab Gulf States wants Iran to charge transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz, agreeing with Trump that Iran cannot assert control over the Strait. Rubio wants Iran to know Trump would not accept Iran charging transit fees in the Hormuz Strait.
. Whatever the sticking points remain in the MOU, the U.S. and Iran have plenty of time to resolve them without returning to bombing and U.S. sanctions. Rubio wants Islamabad and Doha to know there are limits on diplomacy if Iran refuses to accept that the Strait of Hormuz must reamin open to commercial shiping. Trump has certain red lines but could give a little leeway on U.N. inspectors, knowing that Iran’s underground enrichment industry has been largely destroyed over the last year. Iran refuses to admit the extent of damage to its underground nuclear enrichment industry, something Trump no longer has the same worry about Tehran returning to enriching military grade uranium. ‘No tolls, no insurance costs, and no toehr charges of any kind,” Trump said for commercial shipping in the Hormuz Strait. When it comes to nukes. There’s more flexibility.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
