LOS ANGELES (OC).–Months in the making, the long-awaited U.S.-Iran peace deal will be signed tomorrow according to Pakistani officials. Working night-and-day, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif should be a shoe-in for the Nobel Peace Prize, something that’s eluded Trump for years of working to end the Ukraine-Kremlin war not well into its fourth year. No question that Trump practically stood on his head to get Russia and Ukraine to agree to a peace deal, both countries objecting for various reasons. When it comes to Iran, Trump has given-a-little and taken-a-little to make the current arrangement happen, largely overcoming demons from the past, especially the 2015 Obama-era Iranian Nuke Deal. Trump cancelled the deal May 8, 2018 because its was not verifiable or enforceable as measured by the prodigious about of uranium enrichment that stockpiled 1,000 pounds of 60% fissile material.
Trump has made a real issue out of Iran’s nuke program he the U.S. and Israel has all but destroyed the underground enrichment program. Once though invulnerable underground, Trump’s B-2, GBU-57 bunker buster bombs all but ended the image of vulnerability. Trump said Iran’s nuke program was “obliterated,” so why he’s made suche a big deal out of ending Iran’s enrichment program is anyone’s guess. Certainly demanding that Iran agree that it would never creat a nuclear weapon sounds unrealistic when you consider the Persian nationa has had a nuclear program eatablished by the Shah in the 1950s. Irams terrorist acts to stop the free flow of oil through commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil prices and inflation to spik all over the world. Trump couldn’t stop Iran’s well-developed fleet of armed swift boats from shutting down the Strait.
Whether or not the U.S. navy could have neutralized Iran’s IRGC swift boad fleet is anyone’s guess. So far, it hasn’t happened with Iran stopping commercial shipping in the Hormuz Strait. Whatever deal Trump struck the could by signed on his 80th birthday tomorrow, it could be historic to the extent that Iran and the U.S. have no formal diplomatic relations. Trump would like to have a prosperous business relationship with Iran, bring Iranian oil to the U.S. and other world markets. Trump’s peace deal give Iran plenty of incentives, especially and end to the April 13 blockade of Iranian ports. Losing some $500 million a day, iran has plenty of incentive to sign a peace deal. With an end to U.S. sanctions, Iran could become fiscally solvent in short order. Trump’s blockade of Iranian ports proved the perfect chess move with Iran blockading the Hormuz Strait.
Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif went above and beyond the call of duty, never aloowing himself to deviate from impartiality in landing a complicated peace deal. Pakistani and Saud mediators “welcomed the U.S.-ran negotiations in their final state, with the electronic signing ceremony for tormorrow. Coming from Islamabad, the announcement has more clout that from Trump who’s said, on many occasions, a deal with close to getting done. Trump knows better than most that a deal isn’t over until it’s over, knowing, in the real estate bizz, anything can fall through. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said both sides were “closer to a peace deal thatn every before,” stopping short of saying that it would happen tomorrow on Trump’s 80th birthday.
Trump spent too much time leading up to the final agreement concerned about the future of Iran’s nuclear program. He said last year that the program was “obliterated,” so why all the fuss over Iran’s future prospects of building a bomb? Once the war started with Iran Feb. 28, Iran’s terrorist tactics in the Strait of Hormuz wreaked havoc on world oil markets, sparking the worst inflation in four years. Sarif and other Guld leaders want no part of war with Iran, knowing it interferes with their business model. Whatever happens going forward, the Arab Gullf States know that the U.S. has their backs. Iran has shown a cavalier approach to its war with the U.S. hitting various sites in Arab Gulf state, when they did nothing to deserved the attacks, other than hosting U.S. military bases. Arab Gulf States under Trump know that the U.S. is a key ally.
All prior attempts to agree to a long-term peace deal failed, largely because both sides showed too little flexibility. When it comes to getting down to brass tacks, Trump has agreed in the final settlement to pony up $24 billion, end the blockade on Iranian ports and reverse the punitive economic sanctions that have hampered Iran’s eecoomy. By signing the deal, Iran stands to gain far more than the U.S.. When you consider the nuclear issue is a non-starter for Trump, he needs to get the Hormuz Strait back open for unrestricted commercial shipping.lanes. Under the new agreement, Iran may still retain the right to charge shippers for maintaining the Hormuz Strait. Ending the conflict was more important that continuing to bicker over the small stuff as long as the IRGC doesn’t continue terrorize commercial shipping. In the end, the agreement works for both partines.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
