LOS ANGELES (oc).–President Donald Trump finds his Iran peace plain in limbo, largely due to the fact there’s no trust between the two sides, despite the heroic efforts by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Sharif and his mediating team have worked in overdrive to get the U.S. and Iran to agree to peace plan to end the war. Iran keeps pushing the idea that it can retain sovereignty over the Strait of Hormus, turing it into a cash cow for the Persian regime. Iran wants to charge commercial vessels for tranisiting the strain, even though the Strait is recognized as an international water, not subject to control by any one country. Iran’s Republican Guard Corps [IRGC] has been in control of the Strait for years, routinely harassing ship or charging them passage fees sometimes in millions. Trump wants all of Iran’s shenanigans to stop, leaving the Hormuz Strait open for all.
Trump sees Iran as having no cards in the negotiation which would be right if its could not effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz with military strikes against commercial ships. Iran;s IRGC has developed a fleet of armed swift boats capable of inflicting damage on most commercial ships, defenseless in comparison to the U.S. navy. Attempts by Iran to strike U.S. naval assets in the Persian Gulf and Hormuz Strait have failed because of preemptive action with superior weapons by the U.S. navy. It’s awkward and time-consuming to the U.S. navy to serve as an escort service for commercial ships in the Hormuz Strait. European Union countries should have committed military assets to assisting the U.S. navy transit commercial ships through the Hormuz Strait. Any peace deal must have Iran agreeing to call back the IRGC from attacking commercial ships.
Iran wants any peace deal to include an end to Israel’s skirmish with Hezbollah in Lebanon, something that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would do on Trump’s request. How ironic that Iran’s mullah regime funds Hezbollah to keep battling Israel but says any peace deal must include an end to Iralie-Hezbollah war. Israel has a peace deal with Lebanon but they don’t control Hezbollah fighing with Israel annnt Iran’s request. Getting Netanyahu to agree with a truce with Hezbollah is not a major stumbling block to any Iran War peace plan. Trump must decide his minimum requirements for peace, let his position be known, and let Pakistani mediators work on getting Iran to agree. Trump can’t get everything whether he hold the cards or not. Both sides must agree on the issues that make a long-term peace deal possible, especially on opening up the Hormuz Strait.
Iran looks for Trump to end the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports, allowing Iran to resume shipments of crude oil and natural gas to its global customers. China and Insia routinely buy crude oil and natural gas at well-below global spot prices. Enforcing the blockcade on Iranian ports, Trump has prevented the Iranian economy from generating sufficient income. Once Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei approves the plan to end the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Trump would, in turn, remove the blockade on Iranian ports, letting Iran resume shipments to global customers. Trump appears waiting before signing on to a new peaqce deal that Iran agrees to turn over its nuclear stockpile to the U.S. or transfer it to some other third party like Russia. Trump can’t hold up the entire peace deal based on such a contentious issue.
Iran’s nuclear programs goes to hear to its sovereignty, not primarily a destire to build an clandestince nuclear bomb. Enriching uranium to 60%, the late Ayatollah Ali Khaemenei tried to make a point to Trump in 2018 that if he cancelled the U.S.-Irab Nuke Deal he would order no limits on nuclear enrichment production. Before Ali Khamenei’s death, Iran had stockpiled around 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium, only a small step from weapons grade material. Iran won’t agree to turn the stockpile over to the U.S., preferring in any agrrangement to ship it to neutral third pary like Russia. But whateve happens to what Trump calls “nuclear dust,” it should stop the entire peace process that could reshape the gloal economy, something that suffers under the current blockade. Iran wants its sanctions lifted and frozen assets, something that should happen in any peace deal.
Getting lost in translation, the current slalemate with Iran peace talks has to do with Iran and the U.S. are not talking directly. Everything goes through Islamabad, leaving Trump and Iran at the mercy of clear communication. Neither party can get everything they want to fashion a long term peace deal. Iran can’t get sovereigny over the Hormuz Strait or the right o build a nuclear weapon. Trump has warned Iran not to pushing things to brink to war again but compromise enough on key issues to get to a 60-Day extension to the current ceasefire. Whatever happens to peace negations during tht 60-day period is anyone’s guess but returing to war helps no one, since the war has no military solution. Finding the right compromise is necessary for both parties.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
