LOS ANGELES (oc).–ran announced today that it was suspending all peace talks with the U.S. over continued warfare between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. While there’s no confirmation that any talks have been suspended, Iran looks to play hardball before they sign onto a 60-day continuation of the April 17 ceasefire to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has no leverage in the Persian Gulf other than terrorist tactics by its Republican Guard Corps {IRGC] operating a fleet of armed swift boats capable of attacking commercial shipping trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s Tasnim News Agency cited Israel’s ongoing war with Hezbollah in Lebanon as the reason why they were suspending Islamabad peace talks. Negotiating a hard bargain, Iran wants to get everything it can before signing a long-term peace deal. Oil prices spiked today on news that Iran suspended peace talks.
Complicating the picture for peace talks is the fact that the U.S. and Iran have no direct contact other than letting Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his negotiating team handle the communication. President Donald Trump has his red lines or bottom line but cutting a peace deal hasn’t been easy due to all the complications. Trump says Iran does not hold the cards, something true but he still has to, like any negotiation, compromise on key points to get a deal done. Iran wants $12 billion in frozen Iranian assets plus get the U.S. to pay war reparations, something that won’t happen under Trump. If Iran gets sanctions relief for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, Iran should jump for joy, knowing they can begin to help resuscitate their battered economy. Trump wants to help Iran but only if he gets his concessions.
Reporting that Iran has cancelled peace talks with the U.S. sent oil spiking from $78 to $92 a barrel as energy markets overreacted to clearly a negotiating tactic from Iran. Iran has no choice but to settle with Trump knowing that its losing millions in oil and natural gas revenue everyday. Trump isn’t asking for the world, he’s only asking Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz and turn over its 1,000 stockpile of 60% enriched uranium to the U.S. or some other third party like Russia. Trump wants to end the Iran War on terms that it shows the whole adventure was worth it to the American peopled. Democrats and fake news would like Trump to get a bad deal to score political points ahead of the Nov. Midterm election, not because Trump’s actions have improved U.S. foreign policy and national security. Neturalizing Iran’s military has reduced terrorism in the future.
When it comes to ending the Iran War, Iran wants its $12 billion in frozen assest plus sanctions relief to allow Iran to sell its oil without restrictions into world markets. Iran currently supplies a significant amount of oil and gas to China and India below the market. Whatever Iran’s business model, Trump should be concerned about continuting the war at the expense of world energy markets that have skyrocketed the price of oil since the Feb. 28 war started. Announcing today that it ended talks with the U.S. roiled energy markets, continuing to drive prices to near record highs. Getting talks back on track, Trump needs to tell Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wrap up his current operation in Lebanon, at least until the U.S. and Iran can settle the war. Iran wants its cash and sanctions relief while Trump wants a face-saving way out of the conflict.
Trump tried to reassure the anxious press, thinking that peace talks were off with Iran. “”Just sit back and relax, it will all work out well in the end—it always does,” Trump told the press, showing why he has the patience and wisdom to endure ups-and-downs in the long negotiating process. Trump knows that Iran plays around with the global press, knowing what buttons to press to put more pressure on Trump to sign onto a peace plan. Trump said that time is on his side to wait out Iran because they can’t currently get oil and natural gas to global customers with the U.S. navy enforcing a blockade on Iranian ports. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi. ”The United States and Israel bear responsibility for the consequences of any breach of the truce,” Aragchi wrote on social media. Aragchi knows that Iran is playing hardball to get concessions from Trump.
Trump’s attitude clearly understands that Iran just plays hardball trying to get as many concessions as possible in any final peace deal. Claiming they’ll redouble efforts to shut down the Hormuz Strait, Iran knows that it only hurts itself not settling the conflict, knowing Trump can, at any time, order the U.S. navy to take for extreme measure in the Strait. Iran has already lost many armed swift boats getting too close to U.S. assets. Ordering the navy to shoot to kill, there are no rules on engagement hampering the U.S. navy in a combat zone. Saying he would redoublt the shutdown of the Hormuz Strait, Aragchi knows it’s the only cards Iran has left. Trump knows that it’s all a negotiating tacting trying to Netanyahu to stop waging war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu will do whatever Trump wants, including, for now, shutting down military operations in Lebanon.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
