LOS ANGELES (OC).–Striking an Irania missle launcher site and two mine-laying boats in Sourthern Iran, Presiden Donald Trump sent a loud message to the mullah government in Tehran that he’s ready to escalate the war if Iran doesn’t agree to a peace deal soon. Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire agreement, something Iran has a ignored over the last month, continuing to strike commercial vessels in the Hormuz Strait. Iran’s Republican Guard Corps [IRGC] continues to use its heavily-armed swift boat fleet to strile commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. While House officials deny a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. navy has started escorting ships through the Strait. Iran uses in IRGC fleet of armed swift boats to attack innocent freighters and tankers trying to transit the Hormuz Strait, leaving a backlog of scores of ships unable to move through the Strait without getting attacked.
Trump’s attack on missile sites and mine-laying boats on southern Irans tells the mullah government that the U.S. military is ready-and-willing to escalate the war on Trump’s orders. Calling it “bad faith and unreliability,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi let the U.S. know that a permanent peace agreement was not imminent. “Without any doubt, the Islamic Republic of Iran will leave no aggression unanswered and will not hesitate in defending Iran’s sovereignty with the utmost determination,” said the Iranian Foreign Ministry. But Iran knows the conssquences of escalation, realizing the costs outweigh any benefeits. Trump said over the weekend that there would be a good deal or no deal, letting Iran know they have some work to get a peace deal with Trump. Trump wants Iran’s 1,000-pound 60% nuclear stockpile surrendered to Russia.
Regardless ot yesterday’s strike, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said an agreement was days away, still under advisement by Iran. Iran knows that Trump wants it nuclear stockpile transferred to a third pary, most likely Russia. Iran thought it could get an extended peace deal without dealing with the nuke issis that looks top on Trump’s priority list. Trump wants Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz but it must happen with an agreement to transfer the nuclear stockpile to Russia. Iran wants to call the shots but knows that Trump has the leverage and, if necessary, would end the ceasefire and resume bombing. Iran wants Trump to end the blockade on Iranian ports and end the sanctions that have prevented Iran from selling ts oil and natural has into world markets. Iran has much more to lose than the U.S. continuing to stall on signing a long-term peace deal.
If Iran wants the war to end it knows what it has to do to accommodate Trump’s demands. High on Trump’s priority list is transferring Iran nuclear stockpile to Russia. Trump wants to tell the U.s. Congress and American people that he ended the Iranian nuclear threat, despite all of Iran’s denials about seeking an A-bomb. What possible reason would Iran enrich uranium to 60% of they weren’t intesteded in developing an A-bomb? Commercial use of reactor fuel for electricity power is at 3.5%, the limit placed on Iran by Obama’s 2015 Nuke Deal, though there was no way to verify compliance. Trump cancelled the Iranian Nuke deal May 8, 2018, irking Democrats, largely because the treaty could not be verified. With Trump getting Iran’s nuclear stockpile out of Iran, it will help verify that Iran no longer presents a nuclear threat to the Mideast.
White House officials denied a Wall Street Journal report that the U.S. escorted a Greet tanker carrying 2 million barrels of oil transited with U,S. navy support through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has floated may demands during the last six weeks since the ceasefire begain, saying it would declare sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait and demand war reparations from the United states to end the war. Iran knows that Trump would never accept Iranian sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait, turning into a turnpike to extort cash from commercial shipping companies. Iran has used the IRGC swift boat fleet to torment commercial shipping, striking vesseols without warning. All of the Arab Gulf States want the Strait of Hormuz open permanently as an international waterway. Iran knows they will have to open up the Strait soon or face more U.S. bombing.
Whatever Trump did bombing mine-laying boats in southern Iran, the mullah refime knows it’s only the beginning if they don’t accept a more than generous peace deal. Trump is willing to end Iranian sanctions in exchange for opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Striking innocent commercial ships hat been an act of terrorism, no different that Houthij rebels or Somali pirates. Iran resorted to terrorism once its conventional military was degraded by the U.S. and Israeli military. When it comes to a peace deal, Iran knows it would benefit greatly to a long-term peace deal, ending U.S. sanctions and opening up Iranian ports to deliver its crude oil land natural gas to global customers. Trump isn’t asking for the moon, he just wants the 1,000-pound 60% nuclear stockpile to be transferred to Russia. As the clock ticks, Iran knows Trump has offered a deal they can’t refuse.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
