LOS ANGELES (oc).–President Donald Trump said a deal with closer beteen the U.S. and Iran on ending the 12-long war, where over a month-long ceasefire has given both sides the chance to resolve the conflict. Thanks to the good will of Pakistan playing mediator, the two sides have a chance to end the bloodshed and disruption to world oil supplies. But Iran’s demands for sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz remains a sticking point together with Trump’s demand to take custody ot Iran’s 1,000 pound stockpile of 60% uranium. Know one really knows the state of Iran’s underground uranium enrichment program after sustaining damage in last year’s conflict and, more recently, the lates U.S. and Israeli bombing campaigns. Iran considers its nuclear program as source of national pride, once a part of U.S. efforts under the Shah of Iran since the 1950s. So, Iran’s refuses to give up its uranium stockpile.
Trump has staked his presidency on preventing Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, something Iran claims it has no intent of developing, insisting it’s nuclear program was for civilian purposes. Explaining why Iran enriched 1,000 pounds of uranium to just under weapons grad material makes no sense of nuclear experts, when civilian use of enriched uranium is only 3.5%, not 60%. So, Western nuclear experts don’t buy Iran’s explanations for enriching uranium to 60%, other than using its stockpile as a deterrent without building on bomb. No one knows what on Iran’s mind more than Pakistan who, despite all the odds, developed its own nuclear bomb in 1995 to neutralize a nuclear threat from India. Trump has implemented a blockade on all Iranian ports April 13. Iran insists that Trump blockade violates the ceasefire, stopping U.S. and Israeli bombing April 7, Since then, Trump has promised a more devastating attack if Iran doesn’t agree to peace deal.
Pakistan mediators have accused both sides of moving the goal posts, changing positions for an end to the conflict. Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmail Baqaei said he sees “a trend toward rapporachement but said, ‘it does not nessasarily mean that we and the United States will reach an agreement on the important issues.’”. Baqqei refers to Iran’s demand that the U.S. pay Iran war reparations, not to menting agree with Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Trump would not accept conditions that violate international law, leaving the Hormuz Strait as an international waterway, not subject to Iran’s control. Before the Feb. 28 war began, some 20% of the world’s oil supply transited the Strait largely from oil rich Arab Gulf State countries led by Saudi Arabia.
Baqaei said Iran needs more time to complete a memorandum of understanding [MOU] on a final peace deal. Trump wants Iran to complete a deal within days, something that isn’t moving on hi time line. Whether or not Trump decides to start bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure is anyone’s guess. Iran sees a deal potentially happening with 30 to 60 days, something Trump sees as a ploy to re-arm from its military losses during the first six weeks of war. “There is a chance that, wheterh it’s later today, tomorrow, in a couple of days, wer may have something to say,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio.in a visit to New Delhi. Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammed Baqher Ghalibaf admitted that Iran spent its time in a ceasefire rebuilding its armed forces. Ghalibaf warned that any attack by the U.S. would be met with a wider scale war in the future.
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, there’s been not diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Iran, breeding the kind of mistrust that doesn’t bode well for any peace negotiations. Trump doesn’t believe that Iran has cards to dictate terms of a peace deal, knowing the U.S. and Israel could restart the war at anytime. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi said “repeated betrayals of diplomacy and military aggression against Iran, along with contradictory positions and repeated excessive demands,” by Washington. Aragach refers to Trump’s demand to surrender Iran’s 1,000-pound stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. Trump wants Iran to stop supporting Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia currently battling Israel in southern Lebanon. Iran wants in any peace deal Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu refuse to stop battling Hezbollah.
Trump said last week he was an hour-or-so away from resuming bombing Iran before a request from Arab Gulf State continued the peace talks. Whether Pakistani mediators can reach a settlement with Iran and the U.S. is anyone’s guess. Iran isn’t ready to surrender its 1,000-pound stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. It’s possible that Trump would agree to Iran transferring the enriched uranium to Russia or some other neutral country. Whatever comes out of the war, Trump wants Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions especially about building an A-bomb. Trump thinks he has a mandate from the Arab Gulf States to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapons, causing an arm’s race in the Middle East. When it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran knows there’s no support for sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait and must stop attacking commercial ships.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor fo OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
