LOS ANGELES (OC).–Speaking at the White House with Finish President Alexander Stubb, President Donald Trump said he will press with his NATO and EU allies for a peace deal with Ukraine. Trump found a peace deal in Ukraine more elusive than ever, all because Ukraine’s 47-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky and Brussels refuse to cede land to Russia after three-and-a-half years of war. “Yeah, we are stepping up the pressure,” Trump said in an Oval Office meeting with the Finnish president. But Stubb knows that the EU opposes Trump’s peace plan that involves trading land-for-peace, something rejected by Zelensky and the EU on the premise that if they gave land to Putin, he would wants more European territory in the future. Putin has said emphatically that he wants no part of any war with NATO, nor does he have any interest in taking any European land.
So, while the EU and Trump say they want to put more pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to get a ceasefire deal, Trump also knows that Zelensky and the EU are not on the same page when it comes to peace. “We’re stepping it up together. We’re all stepping it up. NATO has been great,” Trump said. Whatever Trump says publicly, it’s not really what he thinks because he was 90% toward a peace deal with Putin if the EU and Zelensky went along with realistic negotiations for peace. Trump understands that after more than three-and-a-half years of war, Putin wants to collect his spoils, largely from territory seized since the war started Feb. 24, 2022. Trump had a workable peace plan with Putin until French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer refused to cede Ukrainian territory.
Trump has been consumed with completing a Gaza peace deal, getting the terror group Hamas to return what’s left of living Israeli hostages in exchange for imprisoned Palestinians before Hamas leaves power. Trump, working with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has managed to get Hamas to return the remaining hostages and agree to leave the Gaza Strip. While there’s still much to be done, Trump plans to travel of Cairo next week to sigh a peace deal in the Gaza Strip. Many foreign leaders have praised Trump efforts to finally end the Gaza War, something that’s supposed to happen next Monday or Tuesday. Anything could happen between now then but it looks like Hamas has finally agreed get out of the Gaza Strip to start the massive national construction project. Hamas agreed to turn the regime over to a new interim Palestinian government.
When it comes to Ukraine, dealing with Putin is far more complicated to the extent that Trump walks a fine-line trying to pressure Putin, at the same time, get him to buy in to a peace deal where he may not get everything he wants. Zelensky also can’t have it all his way, regardless of how much backing he gets from the EU. Putin said that momentum from his Anchorage, Alaska summit with Trump had largely vanished. Putin sees no movement toward peace from Zelensky or the EU, refusing to cede territory to Moscow. EU officials agree with Zelensky that Putin poses too much of risk to Europe should Ukraine lose the war. With Zelensky already losing some 25% of Ukraine’s best sovereign territory to Putin, there’s little chance that Putin will stop the war unless he collects his spoils. Yet Finnish President Stubb believes that after Gaza Trump can pull it off.
Stubb would be a big help to Trump speaking with Macron, Merz and Starmer, all of whom oppose Trump’s peace plan to trade land-for-peace to end the war. Stubb knows that his EU colleagues don’t trust Putin to surrender any Ukrainian territory. Brussels thinks Putin started the war illegally and should end the war without expecting any spoils to follow any peace deal. No question that Trump needs Stubb to exert influence over Macron, Merz and Starmer to change their attitude toward entering into realistic peace talks with Putin. Trump spent months sending in peace envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with Putin five times to get a precise read on what it would take to end the war. EU officials have focused on post-war security but have no real peace plan to end the war. Stubb could be very helpful to Trump to get the EU back on the same page to end the war.
Once the Gaza war is in the history books, Trump can move his attention back to Ukraine, knowing that the strong-arm approach won’t work with Putin. Using Finnish President Stubb, Trump can convince Zelensky and the EU that they can’t end the war unless certain concessions are made to Putin involving land-swaps. Putin spent considerable blood and treasure battling Ukraine but also NATO over the last three-and-a-half years. He’s not going to end the war empty-handed, regardless of all the pressure. Trump understands Putin and knows what must be done to complete a peace deal. EU officials have no rapport with Putin and won’t likely complete any peace deal without realistic negotiations and compromise. Despite all the rumors about Putin seeking more EU territory, he shows no interest in taking more territory, only ending the Ukraine war.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
