LOS ANGELES.–Turkey’s 71-year-old autocratic President Recep Tayyip Erdogan backs a new ceasefire in Ukraine announced by 47-year-old French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron wants a one-month ceasefire in the air and at sea as the first step for negotiating any peace settlement in Ukraine. President Donald Trump, 78, has worked closely with Russian officials to come up with the peace plan that would work for the Kremlin, not one that panders to the EU now accusing Russian President Vladimir Putin of a danger to the European Union. EU official seem content parroting only 82-year-old former President Joe Biden’s talking points of joining Ukraine’s war with the Kremlin. Ukraine’s 47-year-old President was given a choice shortly after the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion to recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimean and accept independence of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Zelenky rejected Putin’s offer in March 2022 opting for war with the Kremlin as long as the U.S. paid for it. Biden had no problems giving Ukraine essentially a blank check, giving unlimited cash-and-arms to Ukraine to stop Russia’s invasion. Biden said the war was “unprovoked and unjustified” to deny his role in provoking Putin into the invasion. Biden had been arming Ukraine to the teeth for months, actually years, before the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion. Putin warned Biden for months leading up to the war that if he didn’t stop arming Ukraine he would have to undertake a “special military operation,” essentially to demilitarize Ukraine. Yet Biden and the EU refuse to see the role the U.S. played in the invasion. Erdogan, who’s been trying to get into the EU for years, now throws in his two cents. He’s got the Turkish army interfering in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere.
Erdogan endorses the ceasefire plan because it’s popular with Zelensky and the EU, a way to counter Trump. You’d think that Erdogan and the EU would like to see what Trump can do with Putin before they propose their own idea. Putin won’t want to pause combat operation if it means giving Ukraine more time to reload. Erdogan likes to insert himself as a neutral peacemaker but frequently is a war with his own people, accusing them only a few years ago of conspiring with Turkish exiled cleric Muhammed Fettulah Gulen to lead a 2016 coup d’etat against Erdogan’s Instanbul government. Erdogan’s crackdown lasted for years only recently showing signs to letting up. Erdogan says he wants to provide a neutral setting for eventual Ukraine Peace talks, undermining 78-year-old President Donald Trump who’s already made considerable progress with Putin.
Turkey is a NATO member but never found its way into the European Union, largely because of Erdogan’s authoritarian crackdowns, especially after the latest coup attempt. Erdogan said he wants to provide a “solid diplomatic foundation” to bring Ukraine and Russia to the bargaining table. Erdogan tried over the years to get close to Putin, going so far as buying Russian-made S-300 missile defense systems for Istanbul. Turkey, who considers itself the southern part of the NATO line, prefers to buy Russian hardware over U.S.-made Patriot missile defense systems. Yet, Putin has always kept Erdogan at an arm’s length knowing how easily he switches allegiances on a dime. Today, Erdogan looks like he’s closer to the EU but only to appear more cooperative to Brussels. When you consider Turkey’s role in toppling former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Putin has his doubts.
If Erdogan really wanted to play a constructive role with the EU, he would be telling Brussels to work with Trump who currently has the best possible chance of pursuing peace in Ukraine. Macron pushed his French plan of a one-month ceasefire but there’s zero agreement from Zelensky that Putin offers anything but the most unacceptable terms. Zelensky thinks he can get a ceasefire without specifying his demands in any peace deal. Judging by what he’s said publicly, he expects Putin to pull all his forces out of Ukraine, pay Kiev war reparations and submit to prosecution for war crimes at The Hague. How would those terms go over with Putin? Zelensky and the EU are trying to stall true peace talks scheduled to resume next week in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Rolling out peace talking in Riyadh shows just how much Trump trusts Ergogan to provide a neutral setting.
Erdogan has already discredited himself as an independent peace broker taking Zelensky and the EU’s side on any future peace talks. Trump was the only one that pushed for peace talks, no one in the EU, only until recently has proposed anything. But if you listen to what Zelensky wants, he won’t get it from Putin, nor would Trump view Zelensky’s demands as anything but unreasonable. Zelensky thinks by siding with the EU he’ll have a better shot of getting his peace demands fulfilled. No one in Russia or the White House expects Zelensky or his EU handlers to make any progress toward peace. What’s important for U.S. foreign policy and national security is for Trump to state clearly that the U.S. war in Ukraine is over. Whether Trump gives Ukraine any humanitarian aid is unknown. What’s known for sure is that Trump is done underwriting Biden’s war with the Kremlin.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
