LOS ANGELES.–Iran’s April 14 missile and drone attack on Israel could change Iran’s emphasis on nuclear deterrence, largely because the strike on Israel was intercepted almost 100%, leaving Iran without any effective deterrence. Iran’s 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared in a 2020 fatwa that Iran was against building an A-bomb something doubted by U.S. and Western officials, all think that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was for the purpose of building nuclear weapons. Now that Iran knows that its conventional forces cannot penetrate Israel’s defensive shield, deflecting 99% of Iran’s missiles and drones, Iran has been forced to rethink nuclear weapons as future deterrent, much like Pakistan did with India when Abdul Qadeer Khan created the A-bomb for Pakistan in 1998. Since then, Pakistan has had less border problems with India.
When it comes to Iran, Aytollah Ruhollah Khomein’s Islamic Revolution evicted the U.S.-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, largely because the 1954 CIA coup that toppled Iranian socialist Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh who tried to nationalize Iran’s oil industry. Whatever the reasons for the CIA-backed coup, Khomenei succeeded in toppling the Shah who died not long after that June 27, 1980 of leukemia. Among the mullah class that runs Iran as a ruthless authoritarian theocracy, they have no trust of the United States. Since Khomenei’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, the U.S. has had no diplomatic relations with Iran, primarily because the mullahs fear another CIA-backed coup. Iran deals with its own internal unrest largely due to Khomenei’s repressive government that turned back the clock on advances made during the Shah’s rule from 1941 to 1979.
Former President Barack Obama worked for two years with 80-year-old Secretary of State John Kerry on the Iranian Nuke Deal, eventually signed July 14, 2015 for the purpose of limiting Iran’s nuclear enrichment program in exchange for lifting economic sanctions and releasing $150 billion in frozen Iranian assets and another $1.8 billion in cash. Iran agreed to have its uranium stockpile reduced by 98%, agreeing to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67% for 10 years, theoretically postponing Iran’s breakout time for an A-bomb. But Obama never had any inspection or enforcement mechanism, leaving Iran free to enrich uranium to whatever level it wanted without U.N. weapons inspections. Since President Donald Trump terminated Obama’s Iranian Nuke Deal May 8, 2018, Iran ramped up uranium enrichment to 60%, now with enough weapons-grade uranium for several A-bombs.
Iran now fears that Israel or the United States could attack its nuclear enrichment facilities at anytime, forcing the Aytollah to reconsider his national policy on nuclear weapons. “The Threats from the Zionist regime [Israel] against Iran’s nuclear facilities make it possible to review our nuclear doctrine and deviate from our previous considerations,” said Ahmed Hagalab, Republican Guard commander in charge of Iran’s nuclear security. Former President Trump ended the Iranian Nuke Deal because Iran used the cash from Obama to fund a proxy war using Yemen’s Houthi rebels to attack Saudi Arabia. Iran has decimated Saudi’s largest Aramco oil refinery, routinely bombing the Saudi International Airport. Once Trump terminated the deal, Iran has been back on restrictive sanctions, preventing it from selling oil to the Western Alliance, hurting the Iranian economy.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who represents the Shiite Islam faith, cleverly gaslights Sunni Arabs, especially Palestinians who seek to destroy Israel. Khamenei thinks funding proxy groups with the intent of destroying Israel endears him to Sunni nations like Saudia Arabia or Egypt, yet the Ayatollah funds-and-arms proxy groups that attack Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Ayatollah funds-and-arms Hamas, a Sunni terror group linked to Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood, seeking to topple Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. Hamas can’t figure out why El-Sisi refuses to allow Palestinians to enter Egypt via the Rafah border crossing. Ayatollah funds-and-arms Yemen’s Houthi rebels that have been at war with Saudi Arabia since 2015, routinely hitting Saudi targets but, since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas massacre in Israel, hijacking tankers and attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was opposed to building an A-bomb but now must reconsider Iran’s deterrent stature without a nuclear weapon. “Building and stockpiling nuclear bombs is wrong and using it is haram [religiously forbidden] . . . Although we have nuclear technology, iran has firmly avoided it,” Khamenei said in 2019. “If the Zionsit regime wants to take action against our nuclear centers and facilities, we will surely and categorically reciprocate with advanced missiles against their own nuclear sites,” Haghtalab said. Haghtalab knows that Iran didn’t have much success in penetrating Israel’s defensive shiel, knowing that nuclear deterrence may be the only way to deter future attacks. Iran’s 63-year-old President Ebrahim Raisi said today that if Israel dares to respond to Iran’s April 14 attack, Iran would unleash a far more deadly barrage of ballistic missiles.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
