LOS ANGELES.–Israel braces for a retaliatory strike after its presumed bombing of an Al-Quds headquarters in Damacus, Syria, killing two Iranian commanders and others, all related to Iran’s ongoing participation in its proxy war against Israel. Fighting a war with Hamas in Gaza since the Oct. 7, 2023 slaughter of 1,200 Israeli civilians, mostly teenagers at a Negev Desert folk festival, 74-year-old Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he would defend Israeli national security against Iran’s proxy attacks. “For years, Iran has been acting against us both directly and via its proxies, therefore, Israel is acting against Iran and its proxies, defensively and offensively,” Netahyahu said, meeting with his Security Cabinet. Israel prepares for a retaliatory strike much like what happened when former President Donald Trump hit Jan. 2, 2020 Al-Quds’ commander Qassem Soleimani with predator drone.
Iran responded back then with a Jan. 8, 2020 missile strike, Operation Martyr Soleiman, on U.S. Al-Assad airbase in Erbil, Iraq, injuring several U.S. soldiers. “We will know how to defend ourselves and we will act according to the simple principle of whoever harms us or plans to harm us, we will harm them,” Netanyahu said, fully expecting Iran or its proxies to respond soon. With 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini containing domestic unrest, especially over the Basij beating death of Mahsa Amini Sept. 16, 2022, the Islamic Republic can ill-afford a war with the U.S. or Israel. Whatever Iran does to retaliate, the Ayatollah will not want to escalate a wider conflict, most likely instructing its Beirut-based Hezbollah militia to fire rockets into Israel. Cross-border skirmishes have been going on almost daily since the Oct. 7, 2023 Israeli-Hamas War.
Hamas, once considered Iran’s best armed anti-Israeli proxy forces, now is a shell of itself due to six months of war with Israel. Whether admitted to or not, Hamas looks like it’s lost command-and-control in the Gaza Strip, no longer able of much retaliation against Israel. Hamas’s leadership finds itself hiding from Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] close to launching its final offensive in Rafah against remaining Hamas armed forces and leadership. So, for practical reasons, Ayatollah has limited options other than ordering its Sanaa-based Houthi rebels to start firing on more commercial ships in the Red Sea. Hezbollah knows it walks on thin ice firing missiles at Israel knowing Lebanon can ill-afford another skirmish with Israel. So, when it comes to Iran, it has limited options figuring out how to retaliate. Israel’s bombing of Al-Quds headquarters in Damascus blindsided Iran.
Iran spends time trying to hit Israel and the United States, using its proxy groups, one of which is ISISI-K in Afghanistan, responsible for the March 22 attack on Moscow’s Crocus City Hall theatre during rock concert, killing 145 concert goers. Russian President Vladimir Putin was stunned by the attack, trying to tie the attack to Ukraine and the United States. Putin couldn’t fathom why any Islamic terror group would attack Moscow, when Putin tries to show support to Hamas and other radical Islamic groups. Putin forgets his war in Chechnya and 10-year occupation of Afghanistan, battling al-Qaeda terror group for years, before finally pulling out Feb. 15, 1989. So when it comes to Iran’s options, it’s militia groups are under siege in Yemen, Lebanon and Gaza. Iran knows that Israel is a hardened target, protected by its Iron Dome missile defense system.
Iran must do something more dramatic that say it would continue making weapons grade uranium for a future atomic bomb. Former President Barack Obama tried to halt Iran’s production of a nuclear weapon signing the JCOPA AKA Iranian Nuke Deal in 2015. Trump cancelled the JCPOA May 8, 2018, primarily because Iran was, through its Houthi proxies, in a war with Saudi Arabia. President Joe Biden, 81, practically stood on his head to get the Iranian Nuke Deal back, only to find out Iran wants nothing but to harm U.S. interests. Ayatollah Ali Khameini has been a thorn in side of U.S. and Israel, always whipping up anti-American sentiment. Truth be told, the vast majority of Iranians would like to see the Ayatollah’s mullah regime toppled and replaced with a progressive, pro-Western government once enjoyed under the Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi.
Former Israeli intelligence chief Amos Yadin, now professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School, said he would expect Iran to retaliate on the last day of Ramadan, Friday, April 5. “I will not be surprised if Iran will act tomorrow. Don’t panic. Don’t run to the shelters,” Yadin said. “Be tuned for tomorrow and the, depending on the consequences of the attack, it may escalate,” warning about a wider conflict. Unlike Biden, who’s been reluctant to strike Iran directly for commercial shipping attacks in the Red Sean, Netanyhu went after al-Quds in Damascus, knowing that they were planning to hit Israeli troops, maybe in Gaza. Biden has been reluctant during an Election Year to respond directly to Iran, fearing a wide escalation could sink his 2024 presidential bid. Whatever happens it Iran, the Ayatollah will be forced to take conservative action knowing domestic unrest.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
