Analyzing the results of Tuesday’s primaries for the upcoming Midterm elections, Democrats had little to crow about, promising a “blue wave,” expected to sweep them into solid majorities in the House and Senate. Instead of seeing a national backlash against the Trump presidency, Democrats saw more of the same, with congressional districts scraping to pick up more Democrat votes against GOP incumbents. Without evidence of a “blue wave,” Democrats looked to California with some six seats out of 53 in play for November’s Midterm election. Democrats hoped their fiercely negative media blitzkrieg against Trump, hammering his approval ratings down to the lowest in modern history, would help them sweep to majorities in the House and Senate. With the economy steaming along and a North Korean peace treaty in sight, Democrats are losing steam.
When you consider that about 95% of cable and network news is negative toward Trump, Democrats hoped that it would translate into more positive results at the ballot box. Yesterday’s results show Democrats picking up some seats but Republicans seats are still in play for November. Promising Democrat landslides in the fall didn’t translate into strong turnout with only 20% of voters heading to the polls. Democrats and their media backers touted Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom’s strong performance in California, something expected since a Republican governor hasn’t won since former GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger left office Jan. 3, 2011. GOP gubernatorial candidate John Cox held his own, despite the Midterm expected to carry the opposing party to control of Congress. Expectations about a Democrat “blue wave” look less likely heading into November.
Most Congressional districts around the United State are gerrymandered to favor incumbents, making it more difficult for the minority party to win back enough votes to take over Congress. Currently, the GOP controls the U.S. Congress by 23 votes out of 435 total. While that doesn’t seem like too many votes, with incumbents difficult to dislodge, it’s no guarantee in November’s Midterm elections. When Obama faced his first Midterm election in 2010, he had sold majorities in the House and Senate. After passing Obamacare without one Republican vote, the tables had turned on Obama in 2010. When the dust settled after the 2010 Midterm election, Democrats lost majorities in the House and Senate. No one in the GOP boasted about a “red wave” in 2010, accepting that voters looked for a change after Obama got his way on Obamacare.
When Obama faced the Midterms after passing the Affordable Care Act March 23, 2010, the Congress flipped from 242 Democrats to 253 Republican, picking up 75 seats. Democrats are struggling in 2018 to pick up the 23 seats needed to flip the House back to Democrats, hardly what you’d regard as a “blue wave.” Democrats have counted heavily on Special Counsel Robert Muller’s investigation alleging Trump’s Russian collusion in the 2016 election to discredit Trump enough for Democrats to retake the House and Senate While Republicans control the Senate 51 to 49 Democrats, Democrats don’t seem to have enough momentum to return the Senate back to Democrats. Senate seats are even harder to flip than the House, requiring considerable momentum to make any party switch. Democrats find their momentum slipping heading into the Midterms.
Tuesday’s election results show that there’s no “blue wave” from all the Democrats’ attempt to discredit Trump and his White House. Recent reports of former Trump Campaign Chairman Paul Manafort attempting to tamper with witnesses to further discredit Trump and the GOP heading into the Midterms. Democrats thought they could surround Trump would enough bad publicity they could have a big leg up heading into the Midterms. Yesterday’s results show that Democrats are having a far worse time establishing momentum heading into the 2018 Midterm elections With only 23 seats to upend the House GOP majority, Democrats have a far easier climb than Republicans in 2010 when they seized the House and Senate from Democrats under Obama’s watch. Peeling of only a few seats this fall won’t change majorities in the House and Senate.
Without a coherent message of why vote for Democrats in the House and Senate, the Democrat party faces an uphill battle trying to win majorities this fall in Congress. All the talk of a “blue wave,” largely stemming from Democrat-friendly TV news shows like CNN, hasn’t yet panned out. There’s nothing surprising about big-time Democrat incumbents like Calif. Atty. Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom or Sen. Diane Feinstein scoring big in yesterday’s primaries. Battling in Congressional districts where there’s some competitive races is no guarantee for Democrats that the seats will go in their direction. Faced with the prospects of a strong economy and peace treaty in North Korea, Democrats have lost their anti-Trump momentum heading into the Midterm elections. Instead of a “blue wave,” they’ll be lucky to eek out a few seats in the House, not likely to change much in the Senate.
