North Korean 35-year-old dictator Kim Jong-un sent 73-year-old President Donald Trump a message Nov. 28, firing off two short-range ballistic missiles, testing a new mobile missile launcher. Kim hoped Trump would have made more overtures for a long-term peace treaty, something resisted by 55-year-old Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Trump met with Kim at a highly ballyhooed summit in Singapore, Malaysia June 12, 2018, promising to “denuclearize” the Korean Peninsula. When that didn’t happen, Kim and Trump met again in Hanoi, Vietnam Feb. 29, 2019, where Trump ended the summit abruptly when it became clear Kim would not surrender his nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. Trump has had bigger fish to fry, defending himself against House Democrats impeachment hearings, despite knowing they lack the votes in the Senate to remove Trump from office.
Trump met Kim June 30 spontaneously after a Japan visit in the Demilitarized Zone [DMZ], becoming the first U.S. president to cross into North Korea. Meeting afterward with Trump for a mini-summit in the DMZ’s Peace House, South Korean President Moon Jae-in hailed the meeting between Kim and Trump as a “milestone” in denuclearization. Since that meeting, Kim has done nothing to denuclearize other than fire ballistic missiles. While there’s no question that Kim and Trump enjoy good chemistry, there’s also little doubt that it’s leading nowhere. Trump has been criticized for not delivering on his promise of denuclearization, despite the fact that neither the U.S. nor North Korea have exchanged belligerent rhetoric like they did in 2017. North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho said Sept. 23, 2017 that it’s “inevitable” that North Korean missiles would hit the U.S. homeland.
With urgent tensions defused, it’s clear that neither Trump nor Kim have made much progress toward a peace deal. Kim made clear in his three summits with Trump that he wanted to work on a peace deal before working out the details of any denuclearization. Trump and Pompeo have put North Korea on the backburner dealing with other foreign policy priorities, including the Mideast. Japanese Defense Minister Taro Kono reacted to Kim’s latest missile launch. “Kim considers Trump as his political hostage and sees himself in a position to dictate the terms of a the deal by demonstrating his capability to influence Trump’s chance of re-election,” said Chun Yungwoo, South Korea’s former chief disarmament envoy with North Korean. Trump doesn’t consider himself a hostage at all, believing he’s still calling the shots. Trump has other priorities now than de-nuking the Korean Peninsula.
Shooting off North Korea’s two KN-25 short-term ballistic missiles about 380 kilometers [240 miles] does nothing to threaten the United States. It’s been over two years since Kim tested long-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. Developing short-range ballistic missiles enables Kim to use mobile rocket launchers, easier to fire and conceal after launches. Developing solid-fuel missile technology enables Kim makes a first-strike capability more lethal, especially against moving targets like battleships and aircraft carriers. “These tests improve their solid-fuel motors and not only is it good for their short-range systems, it would like make their long-range missiles quicker and more powerful,” said Melissa Hanham, weapons expert at Open Nuclear Network. Kim’s moved forward with more missile technology, something he promised to freeze while working on peace treaty with Trump.
Kim’s definition of “denuclearization” puzzled Trump and his nuclear disarmament negotiating team. There’s zero evidence that Kim agrees to unilateral disarmament without the U.S. dismantling nuclear arsenals on South Korean soil Trump’s focus on denuclearization has hampered peace efforts, especially working on a peace treaty to end the July 27, 1953 armistice agreement, falling short of a peace treaty. Working on peace treaty would satisfy Kim’s security issues that still leave the Democrat Peoples Republic of Korea [DPRK] leery of disarmament without completing a peace treaty. Trump considers recent DPRK missile tests as not threatening the United Sates, despite Kim’s efforts to expand his nuclear arsenal and ballistic missile technology. With a peace treaty, the U.S. could accept a nuclear-armed DPRK without demanding immediate nuclear disarmament.
Kim wants Trump to end punitive economic sanctions before he’s willing to talk seriously about nuclear disarmament. Choking off the DPRK economy, Trump thinks he’s got leverage on Kim, much the same way he’s squeezing Iran to stop its mischief in the Middle East and North Africa. Demanding Kim give up his nukes and ballistic missiles hasn’t worked for Trump, inviting a change of U.S. strategy. If Trump invited Kim to sit down for a peace treaty, he’d get a lot more concessions than demanding nuclear disarmament first before discussing a peace treaty. “We, without being given anything, gave things the U.S. president can brag about but the U.S. side has not yet taken any corresponding step,” said DPRK’s State Affairs Commission, asking Trump work first on a peace treaty. Kim wants Trump to complete a peace treaty first before talking about denuclearization.
