When the U.N. General Assembly opens Sept. 17, 73-year-old President Donald Trump offered to talk to Iran about U.S. sanctions, after Trump backed the U.S. out of the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]. Also known as the Iranian Nuke Deal, the agreement exchanged $150 billion in sanctions relief and $18 billion in cash for Iran agreeing to suspend it uranium enrichment program. Western nations had grown concerned that Iran was working on a nuclear bomb, producing weapons grade uranium. While former President Barack Obama and the rest of the P5+1 [U.K., France, Russia, China and Germany] thought it was a good idea, Trump concluded it emboldened Iran to start a proxy war with Yemen’s Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia. Trump also saw Iran supplying ballistic missiles and other weapons to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon to attack Israel.
After sending his 70-year-old war-mongering National Security Adviser John Bolton packing, Trump thought it was a good time to open the door to Iran. Bolton was the administration’s biggest hawk on Iran, pushing the “maximum pressure” campaign or urging at times military action. Given Bolton’s departure, Trump thought the time was right to make overtures to Iran. Iran has made clear, up till this point, that there would be no discussions with the U.S. unless it returned to the JCPOA. “The Americans must understand that bellicosity and warmongering don’t work in their favor. Both . . . must be abandoned,” said 70-year-old Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Iran’s 59-year-old Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who negotiated the JCPOA with former Secretary of State John Kerry, said Iran would not go to the table with the U.S. unless it returned to the JCPOA.
Rouhani and Zarif have worked feverishly with the European Union on salvaging the JCPOA, demanding that they guarantee $16 billion in loan guarantees to compensate Iran for current U.S. sanctions. Rouhani and Zarif have both threatened to ramp up uranium enrichment unless the EU complies with its demands for cash. French President Emmanuel Macron has practically stood on his head to keep Iran in compliance with the JCPOA. Unlike the U.S. that has no economic ties to Iran, the EU likes to buy cheap Iranian oil, as they do from Russia as well. When Iran doesn’t get its way with the JCPOA, they threaten to ramp up high-speed centrifuges to start generating weapons grade fissile material. If that doesn’t signal that Iran seeks a nuclear weapon, then what does? Recent press reports indicate that Iran worked on a bomb in a secret atomic facility near the rug capital of Isfahan.
Getting the message from the EU that there’s no cash to pass around, it’s more likely that Iran will go out-of-compliance with uranium restrictions under the JCPOA. At some point, even Macron won’t be able to save the Nuke Deal, realizing, if nothing else, that Iran’s not a responsible negotiating partner. Whether Bolton left Trump’s team or not, it seems unlikely that Rouhani will sit down with Trump anytime soon. “A clear sign of defeat of America’s maximum pressure strategy,” said Rouhani adviser Hasameddin Ashena . What Ashena doesn’t get is that “maximum pressure” was not Bolton’s strategy, it was Trump’s. Bolton wanted Trump to provoke Iran into a military confrontation. Bolton’s departure was Trump’s way of saying let’s get back to the table before something more draconic takes place. Despite Trump’s overture to talk, Iran shows no interest at all.
With Iran’s economy in shambles, its Rial currency the lowest on record, Iran needs all the help it can get, not continue its face-saving acts of self-destruction. Rouhani and Zarif should relish the opportunity to negotiate sanctions relief with Trump, without the U.S. returning to the JCPOA. Trump would like to raise the proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel, not just talk about Iranian oil sales. Iran incorrectly perceives Bolton’s departure as a sign of weakness for U.S. foreign policy. “Now the president has made clear he is happy to take a meeting with no preconditions, but we are maintaining the maximum pressure campaign,” said Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. Iran’s recent history shows hubris over common sense, rejecting opportunities to prove they’ve weathered the storm. Meeting with Trump would offer unexpected benefits to Iran’s beleaguered economy.
Chances of a meeting with Trump and Rouhani at the U.N. General Assembly Sept. 17 remain extremely remote. Trump has no intention of returning to the JCPOA, until Iran gives up in proxy war against Saudi Arabia and Israel. Since that’s not going to happen anytime soon, the prospects for a breakthrough at the U.S. General Assembly doesn’t look good. French President Emmanuel Macron has done everything possible to get the U.S. and Iran talking, only to see his overtures rebuffed. Iran would rather let its economy sink to new lows than face humiliation talking to Trump. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wants nothing to do with Trump, regardless of the cost to the Iranian economy. Rouhani and Zarif have no leeway to open any door without the Ayatollah’s blessing. Expecting Iran to get back to the table won’t happen on Trump’s watch anytime soon.
