Asking the European Union for $16 billion in cash or loan guarantees for petroleum sales, Iran threatened to ramp up uranium enrichment if it doesn’t get its demand. When 73-year-old President Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from former President Barack Obama’s July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] May 8, 2018, Iran threatened to resume its enrichment activities. When Obama inked the deal, it was supposed to delay Iran’s pursuit of weapons grade uranium for 10 years. Trump noticed that the Iranian Nuke Deal neither scaled back Iran’s uranium enrichment program nor stopped Iran’s malign activities in the Mideast or North Africa. Iran’s atomic energy chief Ali Akbar Salehi spoke in Tehran with the U.N.’s acting International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] chief Cornel Feruta about the consequences of not handing Iran $16 billion in loan guarantees.
Iran confirmed it was firing up its advanced centrifuges, capable of generating fissile material beyond the limits imposed by the JCPOA. While Iran officially denies it ever worked on an A-bomb, Iranian officials continue to threaten to generate military grade uranium for only one purpose: Making an A-bomb. EU signers of the JCPOA, led by French President Emanuel Macron, hoped to save the Nuke Deal, running counter to new U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil sales. “The European Union was supposed to be the replacement of the U.S. but, unfortunately, they failed on their promises,” Salehi told reporters, hinting Iran would no longer abide by the JCPOA’s uranium enrichment limits. “We heard the EU spokesperson say they would be committed to the JCPOA as long as Iran is,” Salehi said, pointing out that the EU has not met its commitments under the 2015 nuclear accord.
Acting Vienna-based IAEA Director Feruta acknowledged that Iran “announced activities related to its centrifuge research and development,” meaning it was resuming high-speed uranium enrichment outside compliance with the JCPOA. Feruta admitted that “ongoing interactions . . .requires full and timely cooperation by Iran,” something that doesn’t seem to be happening. Macron and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed interest in maintaining compliance with the JCPOA. Trump’s point regarding compliance indicates that Iran never allowed IAEA inspectors into restricted military sites, leaving the compliance issue an open question. “The channels for dialogue are still open, including today . . . [but] Iran must up such actions,” said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, meaning that Iran has already breached uranium stockpile limits set by the JCPOA.
Iran’s attitude toward JCPOA compliance involved the EU pony up the billions in cash needed to offset current U.S. sanctions restricting oil sales. As much as Macron and Putin want to placate Iran, they don’t have the cash or loan guarantees to satisfy Iran’s demands to make up for U.S. sanctions. Trump said today he was willing to meet with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani at the U.N. later this month, only to have Iran insist that that Trump must re-instate U.S. compliance with the JCPOA. Since that’s not going to happen, it’s doubtful Trump and Rouhani will meet in New York or anywhere else. Macron and Putin can’t pull a rabbit out of their hats unless they’re willing to meet Tehran’s demands for cash, something neither France nor Russia are prepared to do. EU, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, also a signer on the JCPOA, don’t have the cash to satisfy Iranian demands.
Since Trump backed out the JCPOA May 8, 2018, Iran has retaliated in different ways, including planting Limpet mines on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf. While Iran denies the charge, there’s no one, other than Iran, with the technology needed to wreak havoc in the Persian Gulf. Iran acknowledged July 1 that it exceeded the enriched uranium stockpile set a 300-kilograms of 2% enriched uranium at 3.67%. Salehi said Sept. 7 that he was starting up 20 IR-4 and 20 IR-6 centrifuges, both banned under the JCPOA, allowing only IR-1 centrifuges. Iran doesn’t get that Trump cancelled the JCPOA and re-imposed sanctions to get Iran to stop its proxy war with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Under Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Iran has clear foreign policy objectives in the Mideast and North Africa. Iran wants Yemen’s Houthi rebels to continue attacking Saudi Arabia.
Trump has already served Tehran notice that he won’t tolerate a nuclear-armed Iran. If Iran continues to enrich military –grade uranium, it’s a matter of time before Trump responds militarily. Ramping up uranium enrichment, Iran sends a clear signal that it’s continuing to work on an A-bomb. All the past denials make no sense, when Iran’s knee-jerk response to the Iranian Nuke Deal is to threaten more uranium enrichment. IAEA inspectors have access to only state-approved nuclear cites, not sensitive military facilities where bomb-making continues to go on. No one in the P5+1 [U.S., U.K., France, Russian, China and Germany] is going to meet Iran’s demand for $16 billion in cash or loan guarantees. Iran has no other recourse other than ramping up in its weapons grade uranium production, something that could eventually lead to bad things in the future.
