As Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro clings to power, Russian President Vladimir and Chinese President Xi Jinping are his biggest supporters, largely because of billions in loans to the country’s oil infrastructure. U.S. President Donald Trump has thrown his support to 35-year-old National Assembly President Juan Guaido. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Madura not to use strong-arm tactics against Guaido, whose pro-Democracy support grows by the day in the streets of Caracas. Maduro still has the backing of the Venezuela military, something Guaido wants to change. Calling for new parliamentary elections, Maduro hopes to push Guaido out of office to consolidate his own power in Caracas. Russia has already provided Maduro with paramilitary support to resist a coup attempt, something that the U.S and Guaido haven’t dared to start.
Whether Guaido enjoys the backing of Trump or not, he doesn’t have the support of Venezuela’s military still loyal to the late Hugo Chavez. Guaido has called for new presidential elections, something Maduro rejects. Maduro’s attempt to call new parliamentary elections tries to squeeze Guaido out, something the U.S. can’t control without committing U.S. troops to topple Maduro. With Russian paramilitary advisers in Caracas, sending U.S. troops would lead to a direct confrontation between Russian and the United States. ‘You want elections? You want early elections? We’re going to have parliamentary elections,” Maduro told sopporters in Caracas. Any election that removes Guaido from the National Assembly would be seen as a direct attack on the United States. “There is no dictatorship in Venezuela, nor will there be,” Maduro said, pretending his reelection last April was not rigged.
Keeping up the street protests, Guaido hopes to drive Maduro from power but won’t have much luck unless the military defects. Resigning today in protest, Venezuelan Air Force Gen. Francisco Yanez hopes to be the first in a chain of military defections against Maduro. Yanez said that most of Venezuelan’s military no longer want to serve Maduro’s government. U.S. sanctions against Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA, preventing oil sales to the U.S., has crippled Venezuela’s already battered economy. “People of Venezuela, 90% of the armed forces of Venezuela are not with the dictator, they are with the people of Venezuela,” Yanez said in a video. Yanez hopes that other key members of the Venezuela military will follow his lead, backing Guaido’s pro-Democracy movement. Nothing scares Russia and China more than grassroots, pro-Democracy movements.
Guaido told supporters in Caracas that he believes Yanez is only the beginning of the Venezuelan military turning against Maduro. “I am certain many officials and soldiers will repeat this gesture, very soon, very soon,” said Yanez. Thousands of street demonstrators chanted, “Guaido, Guaido, Guaido.” “It’s been years of destruction of companies and poverty,” said Pedro Gimenez, a 51-year-old aluminum worker in Bolivar province. “We want a better present and future and we are about to achieve that,” not knowing how-and-when the military would follow Yanez. Maduro called Yanez a traitor, something bound to create repercussions. Venezuela’s rank-and-file have suffered with hyperinflation, currency devaluation and widespread shortages of basic commodities, like milk and bread. Guaido offers Venezuelan workers hope but only if the military follows suit.
With billions of loans outstanding to Russia and China, they’re not going to let Venezuela give in to U.S. demands. Russian and China claim the U.S. has meddled in Venezuela’s internal affairs but the current uprising suggests that ordinary Venezuelans seek a change of leadership. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the U.S. is “ready to provide assistance to the people of Venezuelan.” Including, if necessary, military assistance. Guaido has received recognition as acting president from the United States, Great Britain, Canada, European Union and several Latin American countries including Brazil and Argentina. Maduro has his backers in-and-out of the military, despite growing defections realizing that there’s no hope for Venezuela’s future. Faced with hyperinflation, food shortages and widespread poverty, Venezuelan citizens have looked to Guaido for hope.
Engaged in a pitched propaganda battle with Russia, U.S. continues to pressure Maduro to step down. Russia and China want to guarantee the billions of loans made to Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. If the U.S. wants to get rid of Maduro, they need to consult with Gen. Yanez to figure out how to persuade the rest of the military to jump ship. Committing U.S. troops in Venezuela would invite Russian paramilitary forces to defend Madura, perhaps triggering a proxy war or deployment of Russian troops. “For us Venezuelans, there is only one president. President Nicolas Maduro,” said 35-year–old Gregory Carrasquel, reciting the government’s party line. After years of totalitarian rule, it’s difficult for Venezuelan citizens or the military to know there’s life after Socialism. Convincing the military to turn against Maduro is the only sure way of getting rid of the dictator.
