LOS ANGELES (OC).–Meeting in Doha, Qatar for peace talks, the U.S. and Iran started another round ot talks trying to bridge difference in the 60-day post-war period where both sides are supposed to hammer out a long-term peace deal. Iran’sTehran-based mullah government no longer speaks for itself, letting the terrorist group IRGC call the shots when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the U.S. gets no oil from the Hormuz Strait or not, the IRGC still control about 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas supply, impacting world oil markets wiil crude oil once climbing well over $100 a barrel. So whether the U.S. gest no iol from the Persian Gulf, it’s still impacted by skyrocketing oil prices, drving pump prices up to the highest levels in the last four years. Trump wants to settle the war to stabilize financial markets, especially the 4% inflation caused by runaway oil prices
President Donald Trump wants Iran to give up on its nuclear ambitions with Iran stubbornly insisting that nuclear enrichment is a national right designed to run the nation’s nuclear reactors.requiring only 3.67% fissile material. Once Trump cancelled May 8, 2018 former President Barack Obama’s 2015 Nuke Deal, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered its nuclear enrichment prograd to place no limits on nuclear enrichment. Trump wants Irun to either dilute on destroy its stockpile of 1,000 puounds of 60% fissile material capable of building over 10 A-bombs. No one knows whether Iran continued to work on the technical sophistication to pack fissile material into a warhead, let alone deliver it to its target. Most nuclear experts don’t think Iran was actively involved in working on the structure to build a warhead. But Trump still wants the stockpile surrendered.
Iran IRGC wants sovereignty over the Hormuz Strait to generate millions in transit fees over the eext few years. Not one country agrees that Iran should have the right to charge transit fees when the Strait of Hormuz is an international waterway, not subject to sovereignty by any one country. So, where it stands now, Trump finds himself dealing with an Qatari intermediary dealing with the Tehran-based mullah government when, in fact, the IRGC, a terror group. Controls the Strait of Hormuz. Just yesterday, in a remote outpost in northern Iran, the IRGC lost four militants to Kurdish Pesmerg fighters seeking a homeland in the hinterlands of Iran, Turkey and Iraq/ Trump devised a long-term plan to use the Kurds to help neutralize the IRGC, allowing Kurdist freedom fighter to carve out an independent state. Trump once used the Kurds to neutralized ISIS and its founder Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.
IRGC terrorists continue to menace commercial shipping, not opening up the Hormuz Strait as promised in the July 12 MOU, designating certain steps to work toard a lasting peace. Iran’s mullah government no longer has control of the IRGC, instead with the IRGC controlling the Tehran-based mullah government. Today marks a state of mourning for the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed Feb. 28 on the opening day of the war. Iran’s IRGC and mullah government are in no mood to make any concessions with the country in a state of mourning. U.S. special peace envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner did not attend the first day of meeting with Qatari President Sheikh Mohammad bin Abdullahman Al Thani did not say whether the two sides made any progress. Progress with Pakistan;s Shehbaz Sharif was also made in fits-and-stops.
Iran’s Tehran-based mullah regime headed by President Massoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi all seem amenable to Pakistani and Qatari proposals for a long-term peace, though making no concessions on Iran’s nuke program. IRGC terrorists now controlling the Hormuz Strait seem hell-best on charging transit fees to give the group an instant cash-cow, when they lack outer income streams. So, when it comes to making concessions on the Strait of Hormuz, the IRGC has stubbornly resisted Trump’s demand to open up the Strait without access fees. Before the Feb. 28 Iran War, the Hormuz Strait was open to commercial shipping without transit feeds. Trump wants it returned to the pre-war state, warning Iran that he could return to a new bombing campaign Trump wants a political settlement but therer are limits to what he would accept.
Oil price fell again today based on traders seeing progress in peace talks with Iran. While there was nothing concret, the overall mood is one of reconciliation, not returning to the bombing campaign that destroyed so much of Iran;s military acchitecture. Trump has shown consideratble restraint through the Islamabad and now Doha peace process, recognizing that he wants an end to active combat operations. Whether the mullah government can reason with the IRBC is anyone’s guess. If you follow Wall Street, there’s a lot of insight into what direction the war has taken. Judging by oil prices droping to 467 a barrel, things are headed in the right direction. Anything can happen with the IRGC. If there’s any trend now it’s abiyt kicking the can down the road without anything definite. When the \60-day negotiation period end, don’t be surprised it its continued longer.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
