LOS ANGELES (oc).–Iran continues to violate the June 12 Memoradum of Undertanding [MOU] with Iran, ending the Feb. 28 war that killed thousands of Iranian civilians and spread chaos over the Middle East. Iran agreed that it would fully open up the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, permitting transit without imposing arbitrary fees for safe passage in excache for President Donald Trump ending military combat operations. Trump reluctantly accepted diplomacy led by Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and other Gulf State leaders preferring peace over active combat operations. Yet Iran has presered its ballistic missile operations and continue to fire on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, violating terms of the MOU. Trump has ordered retaliatory strikes at Iran’s costal radar installations and other military targets like key energy infrastructure.
Opting to go along with Islamabad’s push for a peace deal, Trump left Iran’s ballistic missile capability intact enough to continue firing missiles at U.S. bases across the Middle East, a clear violation of the June 12 MOU but, more importantly, the agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to commercial shipping. Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz comes from an independent terrori organization called the Iranian Republican Guard Corp, a completely independent terror group from the Tehran government. Under the best of circumstancs they take orders from the mullah-run government but recent envents prove otherwise. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, led by Abbas Aragchi, takes its orders from the IRGC, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei only in titular control. Iranian officials have no authority or control of the IRGC, now in control of Iran.
Trump has a real problem going forward because he’s seen the damage the IRGC has inflicted on U.S. bases in Kuwai, Bahrain and elsewhere, leaving no U.S. asset safe without neutralizing the IRGC. IRGC struck a Singapore based cargo ship June 25 and a Panama-flgged tanker June 27, showing that whate deal was signed by Iran June 12 did not apply to the IRBC, a completely independent terror operations. Whether the Islamic Republic gives orders or not, the IRGC runs the Iranian military operations, whether Tehran signed off on any peace deal. Trump showed that he’s ready to accept the fact that Iran, as constituted in Tehran, can’t adhere ot any peace deal with the IRGC now running the civilian and military operations. “It is very possible that they will never learn,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, not admitting that Tehran has no control of the IRGC.
Trump gets closer to re-launching major comba operations on Iran, this time going after Iran’s energy infrastructure, something that would paralyze the country. How neutralizing Iran’s energy infrastructure would affect the IRGC is anyone’s guess. As long as they keept getting mobile rocket launchers and fresh supplies of ballistic missiles, it’s going to be difficult to stop the IRGC from attacking U.S. assets. “There may come a point where we are no longer able to be reasonable, and will be forced to militarily complete the job that we very successfully started. IF that happens, the Islamic Republic of iran will no longer exist,” Trump said. Well, with commercial ship still taking fire from the IRGC, the time has long passed when Trump must respond to the ongoing attcks. U.S. assets can’t take mopre unanswered attack from the IRGC without a coherent response.
Trump hoped Islamabad could talk some sense into the mullah government but found out the hard way that they no longer control the IRGC. Since the war started with the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei assassinated, the mullah government surrendered to the IRGB, an independent terror organization that controls the Strait of Hormuz. Iran wanted to turn the Hormuz Strait into a turnpike where they would collect millions in transit fees from various shopping companies, especially thouse based inte oil rich Arab Gulf States. No one in the Arab Gulf States wants to pay transit fees to Iran when the Hormuz Strait is an international waterway not subject to sovereignty by any one country. Trump’s vowed that it any peace deal, Iran would have to religngush control of the Strait of Hormuz, letting the international community maintain open access to the Strait.
Coming to a fork in the road, Trump must decide whether the current arrangement with the IRGC attacking U.S. assets in the Middle East can lsst much longer. While everyone wants peace in the Middle East, the U.S. can’t accept constant attacks by the IRGC everytime they want to retalizate for any reason. U.S. officials must neutralize the IRGC or face the prospects on continue attacks, making long-term peace impossible. Iran’s civilian mullah government, including its parlianment, no longer control the country, now in the hands of the IRGC. Commercial shipping cannot be guaranteed with the IRGC in the picture. Trump hoped that diplomacy could work without realizing that his contacts in Tehran no longer control the country. Unless Trump commits himself toe eliminating the IRGC, there are no real prospects for long-term peace.
About the Author.
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
