LOS ANGELES (oc).–Sending Vice President J.S. Vance to Switzerland with his diplomatic entourate including envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump hope to avoid the collapse of the June 17 Nenirabdyn if understanding [MOU] that established a peace deal with Iran. Iran has been moving the goal posts since signing the deal, now claiming it’s tied to Israel’s ongoing war with its proxy group Hezbollah in Lebannon. Iran said today that it was closing the Strait of Hormuz, prompting Trump to war Iran about the U.S. taking over the country. Iran agreed to the Islamabad protocol, ending active combat operations to find a diplomatic solution. Trump has bent over backwards to accommodate many of Iran’s demands to end the war, including unfreezing $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, ending the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports and U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil industry.
Trump ended the war at the request of Pakistant’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif who’s been playing mediator in the peace talks, knowing he can’t stop Iran from reneging on the MOU that, in effect, ends the war and opens up negotiatons now taking place in Switzerland to deal with remaining issues related to Iran’s nuclear program. Whatever’s left of Iran’s nuke program isn’t completely known, but months of bombing of Iran’s underground enrichment facilities has left the industry in ruins. Trump wanted Iran to turn over its 1,000 pound stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, something that may be impossible. Some nuclear experts believe that the stockpile is entombed in the rubble deeply under ground with Iran’s bombed out nuclear enrichment sites. Yet it any negotiation in Switzerland get anywhere, Iran must see the consequences of failure.
Iran pretends to the world its on a level playing field with the U.S. when, of course, that’s not true. Trump has enough firepower in the Persian Gulf now to blow Iran off the map if he chooses to do that. Trump wanted to end the war because he saw the benefits to world energy markets to end the the war. Iran’s newly minted Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khaemenei insults Trump saying he was “desperate” to end the war because of damage to the U.S. economy. But whatever the reasons Trump wants the war to end, the Ayatollah backs his country into a corner if Trump decides to resume the war. Iran’s claim that it’s closing the Hormuz Strait looks more talk than reality. Commercial ships continue to transit the Strait without incident, prompting Vance & Co. to drive a hard bargain in Switzerland. Trump should have dealt with Iran;s IRGC in the Hormuz Strait.
When it comes to Iran’s nuke industry, whether it exists at all, Vance should take a less strident position on Iran’s right under the MOU to continue at some point to enrich uranium. Enriching uranium for civilian purposes should be on no conseaunce to the U.S. or Israel. Trump said the purpose of the war was to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear bomb, something that could happen any time with Pakistan’s A.Q. Khan’s plans, given to Iran years ago. Iran denies that it has any plans to build an A-bomb, something the U.S. and other nuclear experts doubt because of the deterrent effect o nuclear weapons. A.Q. Khan develop Pakistan’s A-bomb in the 1990s to neutralize India’s nuclear advantage over Islamabad. Over thirty years later, India and Paikistan have largely resolved their political difference, essentially leaving each other alone with ther current state of nuclear deterrence.
Trump pulled out of former President Barack Obama’s nuke deal with Iran, largely because it was unverifiable and unresolved Iran prevented U.N. inspectors from entering Iranian underground enrichment sites, largely because, as Trump said, it was bombed to oblivion. Once Trump ened the original Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA], the late Ayatollah Ali Khaemei ordered Iran’s nuclear authority to place not limits on uranium enrichment. Eventually Iran went from 3.67% enrichment to 60%, making over a 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium. Trump wants Iran in any new negotiation to agree to dispose of the material, either by diluting it to 3.67% to to let a third party like Russia to remove the material from its custody. But whatever the agreement, Trump must prioritize keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, regardless of Iran’s nuke program.
Trump knows that Iran’s nuke program has been largely disabled for the foreseeable future, something that should help prioritize what’s important with Vance & Co negotiating in Switzeralnd. Iran Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi says that Iran’s right to its nuke program is not negotiable. Enriching uranium to use in nuclear reactors does not require Iran enrich to 60%. Iran uses its enrichment as a deterrent regardless of whether it’s building an A-bomb or not. Whatever negations go on in Switzenlan, Vance must focus on getting Israel and Hezbollah to stop its ongoing war. Vance should ask Aragchi prevail on on Hezbollah to enter into a ceasefire with Israel. Vance has its work cut out himself convincing Iran its in their best interest to stop Israel from undermining the MOUnecessary to keeping the Strait of Hormuze open for commercial shipping.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma…
