LOS ANGELES (oc).–President Donald Trump said March 4 that he would escalate the war with Iran if they don’t open up the Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday two drone boats attacked Thai-flagged tankers, setting them ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers from the Arab Gulf States have bypassed the Persian Gulf knowing Iran would attack any ship trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran doesn’t claim sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz yet Iran routinely mines the Strait when its in conflict. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have exhausted the hunt for Iran’s drone and rocket lauchers, leaving a diminishing return to continuing the strategy. As long a Trump continues the war, he needs to make progress opening up the Strait of Hormuz by neutralizing Iran’s terrorists assets in the region. Whether mining the Strait or deploying drone boats, Trump has a lot of work to do.
Trump’s newly minted 56-yeaer-old Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said it a statement today that he would carry revenge for the U.S. and Israel into the indefinite future. Khamenei shows no signs of ending the conflict, meaning if the U.S. and Israel stopped bombing Iran, Khaemenei would continue his blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. While Arab Gulf oil can go through the Red Seat to the Suez Canal, it still ads to the costs of delivering crude oil.” I Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed IMMEDIATELY,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. Iran is not deterred by Trump’s threats, forcing Trump to extend the war to open up the Hormuz Strait. Iran has no right to blockade a international waterway used by the global shipping industry to ferry petroleum from the Arab Gulf States.
Looking at the big picture, Tump knows that an immediate regime change is not going to happen. So, the war’s objectives are limited to degrading Iranian military, much the same way Israel worked for years to end Hamas rocket launches into Israel. Unlike Hamas, Iran has a much deeper stockpile of rocket launchers and missiles, making ending the carnage and destruction more difficult. When it comes to clearing out the Strait of Hormuz from Iranian drone and swift boats, it’s going to take more time to restore access through the Gulf. If Trump calls off the war prematurely, Iran could continue the attacks on Israel and the Gulf States indefinitely. Trump needs assurance before the war end that Iran will no longer fire missiles on Israel and the Gulf States for the foreseeable future. Trump had the advantage until newly minted Ayatollah Mojtaba said he will continue revenge.
Opening up the Strait of Hormuz should be the remaining top objective of the White House as he works toward ending the conflict. Knowing he can’t get regime change right now, Trump needs to pivot to clear military goals to finish what he started. When it comes to eliminating Iran’s drones and rocket launchers, it’s no longer feasible since they’re scattered around the country. Iran didn’t stop Hamas from launching rockets until they put boots on the ground. Trump has talked vaguely about boots on the ground but know he doesn’t want a repeat of the Iraq or Affranistan Wars. Trump finds himself in a difficult spot because Iran’s Prsident Massoud Pezeshkian says the condition for ending the war would be a guarantee the U.S. and Israel would never attack Iran again. Trump isn’t ready to acquiesce to any demands for ceasefire by the mullah regime.
Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth must refind their objectives in Iran since regime change is no longer feasible. Going after more rocket and drone lauchers hasn’t stopped Iran from hitting Irael and the Arab Gulf States. Whether admitted to or not, even Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system isn’t invulnerable to Iran’s missile attacks. If Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei is serious about the unending revenge against the U.S. and Israel, Trump can’t cut0and-run anytime soon but continue to degrade Iran’s oil industry. Iran has on way of making cash for the regime selling petroleum to primarily China and India. If Trump goes after Iran’s oil infrastructure, it will force the Ayatollah to cut a deal to end the war. As it stands now, Trump can’t end the war until he has ironclad guarantees that Iran will stop wreaking havoc on Israel and the Arab Gulf States.
Time is running out on Trump to pivot to Iran’s oil infrastructure now that he and Netanyahu have spend nearly two weeks degrading Iran’s military capability. Whatever happens with Iran’s nuke programs is anyone’s guess. Trump can expect the Islamic Republic under newly minted Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei to continue rebuilding his nuke program to the point he can makes weapons grade material. How far Trump and Netanyahu set back Iran’s nuke program is anyone’s guess. U.N. IAEA inspectors say that Iran hasn’t enriched uranium since the 12-day war where Trump used B-2 stealth bombers and bunker-buster ordnance to to penetrate underground enrichment sites. If Trump stays in the war, he focus must be on opening the Strait of Hormuz and going after Iran’s oil infrastructure. Running after rocket or drone launchers now isn’t paying off.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
