LOS ANGELES.–Meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday at the Kremlin, 68-year-old Special peace envoy Steve Witkoff looks like he got through when it comes to pausing the Ukraine air war. Putin has been reluctant to stop fighting because Ukraine’s 47-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky rejects all of his conditions for peace, calling them “blackmail.” But Witkoff seems to have at least got Putin ready to pause the air war to begin the process of negotiation and end the over three-year war. Zelensky has paid a heavy price with polls with his approval ratings sinking significantly, especially knowing the extent of Ukraine losses of sovereign land in over three years of war. Putin has taken some 25% of Ukraine’s best sovereign territory on the Black Sea coast. Had Zelensky negotiated in 2022 after the invasion, he would have been much better off.
Witkoff has paved the way for President Donald Trump to meet with Putin in the next week, meaning that they have good news to report on the war. Putin was facing a deadline from Trump on new tariffs and sanctions if he didn’t agree to at least a pause in the air war that’s been bombarding Ukraine for months. Trump faces his own self-imposed deadline on sanctions for India and China, as much as 25% for buying Russian oil, unless Putin agrees to a pause in the air war. Witkoff reassured Putin that Trump wants much more for the Russian Federation, including new business deals with the United States if he can get beyond the Ukraine War. Trump’s motive in ending the war is purely humanitarian, seeing the carnage and destruction on both sides of the conflict. Putin gets nothing out of the war other than depleting the Russian Treasury and alienating former European partners.
When Putin looks at the deal Trump proposes, it’s all good for Russia, especially ending the slaughter on the battlefield of young Russian soldiers. Trump wants peace for both sides because it only makes sense. Once Putin agrees to a pause in the air war, it will allow Trump and European allies to work on Zelensky who faces major challenges. With his approval ratings dropping, Zelensky doesn’t want to admit how much sovereign Ukrainian land he’s lost in the last three years. Zelensky fears a coup d’etat if Ukrainians see how much land they’ll be forced to give up in any peace settlement. Zelensky hoped he could have it both ways: Keep the war going and lose territory, then demand it be returned. Faced with the ugly prospects of surrendering territory to Russia, Zelensky runs out of options, pleading with the EU to get him long-range weapons to keep the fight going.
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer all sympathize with Ukraine in its fight with Russia. But unlike former President Joe Biden who funded proxy war against the Kremlin for three years, the EU isn’t willing to underwrite Zelensky’s war too much longer. Brussels doesn’t want a permanent beef with the Kremlin, only wants to do what’s right for Ukraine. Zelensky keeps asking for more cash-and-arms, hoping he can keep the war going indefinitely until he conquers back his lost territory. Trump told Zelensky in the Oval Office Feb. 28 that he “didn’t have the cards” in any final settlement, needing the U.S. to get Ukraine a better deal. Zelensky rejected Trump’s peace plans demanding to the EU that Putin return all sovereign land seized over the last three years. EU officials are beginning to catch up.
Putin has many demands given to the Ukrainian delegation in Istanbul, asking Zelensky to commit to not joining NATO now or in the future. Putin wanted Ukraine to restrict its lethal weapons something supplied by the U.S, EU and NATO. Putin wants Zelensky to cede Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea to the Russian Federation. If Zelensky had negotiated with Putin in 2022, he would have retained Kherson and Zaproizhzhia, both lost over the last three years. So, once Putin agrees to a pause in the air war, Zelensky will be under the gun to follow a realistic peace plan. He’s been advocating to the EU the removal of all Russian troops from Ukraine. But Zelensky knows that Russian troops have been in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk before the invasion. If Trump can get Putin to return Kherson and Zaporizhzia, it would be a major coup.
If Trump meets with Putin in the next week, it will mark a big change in Putin’s views on the Ukraine War. Trump didn’t want to pressure Putin into a ceasefire or pause in the air war but he’s on a mission to end the conflict. Whether Putin admits it or not, ending the war would be the best thing to happen to Russia. Russia would eventually see all the sanctions removed, including rejoining the G7 and G20. Trump has bigger plans for Russia, including a rare earth mineral deal, not to mention cooperation on a host of global issues. Whatever Putin’s initial demands, he’s looking to defend Russian national security, especially with a Russian neighbor receiving unlimited lethal weapons on the Russian border. Putin knows that Trump seeks normal diplomatic relations with Russia, rejects Biden proxy war policy with the Kremlin. Putin stands to gain big from peace in Ukraine.
About the Author John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charis
