LOS ANGELES.–Long-time GOP pollster Frank Luntz, 62, agreed with other Democrat analysts and pollsters saying they didn’t know who would win Tuesday, Nov. 5 but think 78-year-old President Donald Trump has momentum like he did in 2016 when he beat 77-year-old former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton. Pollsters were way off in the 2016 election going into Election Day with Hillary holding a commanding lead over Trump. So, Luntz thinks it feels a lot like 2016 when Trump closed strong and wound up winning the Electoral College [304-227], a clear victory but no landslide. Things could be different in 2024 with all polls show that 60-year-old Vice President Kamala Harris winning by minute margins or actually losing in most battleground states. So, if you analyze the difference between 2016 and 2024, it looks like Trump should beat Kamala by bigger margins.
Trump was considered a political novice in 2016 compared to Hillary, who had the Clinton political machine behind her, with her husband Bill’s two terms in office. It’s no accident that Bill’s former strategist 80-year-old James Carville has played a conspicuous role in Kamala’s 2024 campaign, blowing more Cajun smoke, talking up Kamala. But when it comes to making any coherent comparisons to 2016 and 2024, Luntz is in the perfect position to make those comparisons. Luntz has been down as it gets on the prospects of another Trump presidency for most to 2024 race until recently. “He’s been gaining and gaining, the momentum,” Luntz said, not making any predictions but agreeing with Nate Silver that Trump has better chance of winning Nov. 5. Luntz thinks that 81-year-old President Joe Biden’s recent gaffes hurt Kamala.
Luntz thinks that recent comments by Joe calling Trump’s based “garbage” after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe said Puerto Rico was a “floating pile of garbage.” Trump didn’t say it, only a unbridled comedian at the Oct. 27 Madison Square Garden rally. Kamala tried to exploit Hichcliffe’s insult to tie it to Trump, when Trump said nothing insulting about Puerto Rica. Whatever Biden said about Trump’s supporters being the real garbage has no real impact on voters casting their ballots for Kamala. Every word at this stage of the campaign is taken out of context to score points with the fake news backing Kamala. When Trump said former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wy.), who has a personal vendetta against Trump, wouldn’t do well with a gun pointed at her, the fake news said Trump thinks Cheney should face a firing squad. Trump said no such thing, only pointing out Cheney was a war hawk.
Kamala distorted Trump’s comments and said they were disqualifying, when all Trump said, as pointed out by comedian Bill Maher, that Cheney doesn’t mind sending young Americans, like her father former VP Dick Cheney, into battle. Trump’s comments about Cheney are no different than 75-year-old former National Security Adviser John Bolton. Bolton also has a vendetta against Bolton for firing him Sept. 10, 2019 for egregious war mongering. Trump said Bolton wanted him to starting bombing every country with whom the U.S. had any disagreements. Yet Kamala and the fake news turned the issue into to a political firestorm. Luntz sees Trump with the momentum heading into Nov. 5, not because of any one thing but because, he sees the same pattern as 2016, yet Kamala has no lead in the polls like Hillary did back then. If things hold, Trump should win the Electoral College and popular vote Nov. 5.
Luntz said the election by the polls is too close to call but the momentum remains in Trump’s favor, with Kamala losing her lead in the national popular vote and in most battleground states. “However, the momentum is clear, in what I see and what I hear, in his [Trump’s] favor, silencing critics who want put their thumb on the scale in the final days of polling before the election. Even Nate Silver thinks that Democrat leaning polls are more biased than ever, not showing the real state of the election. When you consider that Biden was up by 7-10% in national and battleground state polls in 2020, he only beat Trump by less than 2%. So, if the same polls prevail today, it would give Trump a 3-4% victory on Election Day. “And so every word, every phrase, every misstep, every gaffe matters as those last remaining persuadables make their decision,” Luntz said.
Luntz thinks whatever voters left are in the category of either not voting or holding their nose and voting for the lesser of two evils, he thinks will be Trump on Nov. 5. “Do you actually come out and vote if you don’t like either candidate? Because that is the majority of persuadables,” Luntz said, saying most votes have already been decided. Kamala put all her faith in campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillion and her chief strategist David Ploufe who believes in a scorched earth campaign strategy. Ploufe thinks Democrats have amassed their negative talking points about Trump over years and there’s no use in trying to change things now. Because Kamala didn’t do well in explaining campaign issues, Ploufe advised her to keep ripping Trump until the bitter end. Voters seem jaded with all the demonization, saying Trump isn’t fit for office.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
