Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, 52, told the Senate Armed Services Committee that neither Ukraine nor Russia is likely to make much progress in coming moths, as Russia digs into defensive positions around annexed territory in Donbas. Ukraine’s 45-year-old President Volodymer Zelensky has been promising for months a spring offensive to take back sovereign territory lost during the first 14 months of war. Haines put serious doubt into whether Zelensky can use 230 tanks and 1,500 armored personnel carriers to take back lost territory. President Joe Biden bypassed the 1973 War Powers Act going to go to war against the Kremlin without debate or authorization by Congress. Haines told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that it’s doubtful Russia will mount offensive operations designed to seize more Ukrainian territory as they resist Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
Zelensky and his 40-year-old Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba have said they intend to push all Russian forces out of Ukraine, currently garrisoned in Crimea and parts of Donbas, where the Peoples Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk have battled pro-Western Kiev government since 2014. Putin annexed Crimea March 1, 2014 after a CIA-backed, pro-Western coup toppled the Kremlin-backed government of Viktor Yanukovych. Once Putin finished hosting the Sochi Winter Olympics, he annexed Crimea to protect his Sevastopol naval base. Today’s Ukraine conflict directly relates to the Feb. 22, 2024 CIA-backed coup that destabilized Russia’s national security. Without taking Crimea, Ukraine’s former President Petro Poroshenko would have told Russia to relocate out of Crimea. Kiev has been loading up on weapons in the Donetsk region to take back the lost territory.
Russia has been stalled out battling Kiev’s forces in Bakhmut, where both sides have sustained massive casualties. U.S. military analysts criticize Zelensky for spending too much military resources battling Russian forces in Bakhmut. Recently divulged Top Secret files by Pentagon leaker Jack Teixeira showed that Kiev had depleted weapons trying to retake Bakhmut, leaving Ukraine’s military depleted of munitions needed to seize the territory. “Russia forces are facing significant shortfalls in munitions and are under significant personnel constraints but continue to lay minefields and prepare new defensive positions in occupied Ukrainian territory,” Haines told the Senate Armed Services Committee. Haines said the Ukrainian offensive would stop Russia from advancing positions, leaving the conflict a stalemate. Any stalemate favors Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s territory.
Haines gave the White House silver lining to the current Bomb Damage Assessment [BDA], trying to ascertain on the frontlines who’s winning the war. “Even if Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not fully successful, the Russian are unlikely to be able to mount a significant offensive operation this year,” Haines said. White House and Kiev say that they stymied Putin’s objective of taking over Kiev. Since the early days of war, Ukraine successfully resisted the Russian blitzkrieg, turning the war into one of attrition where Russia continues to decimate Ukraine’s infrastructure. Zelensky opted for war against the Russian Federation when he was given by Putin a way out of the conflict. Biden decided to bypass the 1973 War Powers Act and start a proxy war using Ukrainian troops against the Kremlin. Haines doesn’t believe Russia has the forces in place to seize much more Ukrainian territory.
Haines knows that at any time Putin could escalate the air war against Kiev, continuing to hit Ukraine’s infrastructure in major cities. Whatever happens with the spring counteroffensive, things could get a lot worse for Kiev. Zelensky thinks his new tanks and armored personnel carriers should help Ukraine drive Russian forces out of Ukraine’s sovereign territory. “In fact, if Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial third-party ammunition supplies beyond existing deliveries from Iran and others, it will be increasingly challenging them for sustain even modest operations,” Haines said. Haines overlooks Putin superior air force, capable of hitting Ukrainian positions at will. Haines thinks Ukraine’s counteroffensive can stall out any Russian territorial gains in Ukraine. Holding Russian territory to current front lines does nothing for Kiev.
Biden wants to pretend, with Capitol Hill war hawks like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), that it’s OK to start a war without debate or Congressional approval. Going to war against the Russian Federation is the worst foreign policy mistake in U.S. history. Biden took decades of hard-fought diplomacy since the end to World War II and trashed U.S.-Russian relations. Yesterday’s thwarted drone attack on the Kremlin left Russian officials blaming the U.S. Whatever White House denials, Biden can’t trust Kiev from using U.S. weapons to retaliate inside Russian territory. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitri Peskov, who speaks directly for Putin, said the Kremlin holds the U.S. responsible for the latest terrorist attack on Russian soil. Biden has turned world peace on its head, threatening a new war with China over Taiwan. Whatever happens with Ukraine’s counteroffensive, it’s not going to change things.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
