Former President Donald Trump, 76, lost ground against a hypothetical match up with 44-year-old Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis according to a new YahooYouGov poll. Trump led DeSantis two weeks ago 57% to 31%, a 26% margin, looking like he was rolling to the nomination. Today’s poll shows Trump leading DeSantis 52% to 36%, or a 16% margin. Whether that trends continue is anyone’s guess, largely based on pending legal cases against Trump by the Department of Justice and Georgia prosecutors considering charges for election meddling. DeSantis hasn’t yet been taken seriously by GOP voters, largely because he has not announced for 2024. Once DeSantis tosses his hat into the ring, Trump’s lead could shrink further against DeSantis once he makes his candidacy official. Apart from Trump’s 25% GOP base, a sizable number of voters would like to see a fresh face in 2024.
Today’s $787 billion settlement between Dominion Voting Machines and Fox News, largely reflects unfavorably on Trump. Dominion won the whopping out-of-court settlement due to Fox News hosts and pundits fingering Dominion in switching votes to Biden in the 2020 election. Winning the settlement today reflects unfavorably on Trump and the GOP for making baseless claims about voter fraud, fingering Dominion without any facts. When pollsters redo the poll again, the Fox News $787 billion settlement is tantamount to admitting fraud. GOP voters want to extricate themselves from all the baggage in the 2020 election and its Jan. 6, 2021 fallout. Most voters think that Trump’s fake fraud claims about the 2020 election motivate at least some of his followers to riot on Capitol Hill. Fox News’ settlement gives the Jan. 6, 2021 riots a stronger link to Trump.
When it comes GOP voters approving of Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s indictments, the Yahoo/YouGov poll showed that more voters now approve of the 34 felony charges. Only two weeks ago, only 42% approved of Bragg’s indictments. Today’s poll shows that 47% now support Bragg’s indictments. Whether the current trends hold or shrinks over time is anyone’s guess. More GOP voters have shown an interest in moving away from Trump to a new candidate like DeSantis. Trump holds a loyal following of only 25% of GOP voters, making it difficult for him to win a general election. No matter how badly 80-year-old President Joe Biden has botched the economy and foreign policy, the public knows what to expect with Trump. Most political analysts don’t see how things would be any different in 2024, when picking between Trump and Biden. Introducing a new candidate would change that scenario.
Trump’s been so vilified in the U.S. press it’s almost impossible to him to change his image heading into the 2024 race. Biden gets cover from the Democrat-controlled media, despite launching a bloody proxy war against the Russian Federation. Most Americans don’t pay much attention to the Ukraine War, knowing that, at least officially, there’s no U.S. soldiers fighting on the ground. Whether that changes in the future is anyone’s guess. If you listen to Biden, he’s willing to send U.S. troops to fight Communist China over Taiwan. When it comes to Ukraine, Biden ended decades of cooperative relations with the Russian Federation. U.S.-Russian relations have been all but wrecked by Biden, funding a brutal proxy war with the Kremlin. Most U.S. citizens don’t pay enough attention to foreign policy to understand Biden’s damage to U.S. national security.
More criminal investigations into Trump will only give DeSantis more reason to run but also faith that he can beat Trump in the GOP primaries. Biden faces a challenge in 2024 from 70-year-old environmental attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr.. RFK Jr. stayed clear of politics for most of his adult life, largely because he’s suffered from a debilitating voice disorder, disfiguring his voice. Only recently has his voice improved enough where he can go public, running for public office. Whether or not his voice holds up in a long campaign isn’t known. But deciding to run against Biden, RFK Jr. makes a strong statement about Biden’s leadership. No one detests Biden’s proxy war against the Kremlin more than Robert F. Kennedy. He knows that one more mistake with Communist China, Biden could suck the U.S. into a two-front war, one with Russia and the other with Beijing.
Yahoo/YouGov.’s latest poll shows that voters are losing patience with Trump, with more thinking that if convicted Trump should withdraw from the race. Knowing one knows how polls will change once DeSantis announces for 2024. As of now, Trump still holds a commanding lead, until new voters realize that he has too much baggage to run a successful national campaign. More voters think that any conviction would disqualify Trump from running for president. As it stands now, growing numbers of GOP voters look to a fresh face to lead the party in 2024. Trump finds himself in quicksand the more bad publicity he receives from future indictments. Recent polls show that Biden has expanded his lead over a face-to-face race against Trump. Entering a new candidate like DeSantis would upend Biden’s plan to run for reelection. Even members of his party, don’t want Biden running in 2024.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in nationals and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma .
