Landing in Taiwan Aug. 2, 82-year-old House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a statement that Beijing cannot change her itinerary by threats and intimidation. While it’s true that Pelosi had every right, as a U.S. citizen, to visit Taipei, it’s also true that U.S.-Chinese relations are at the low point since the 1949 Maoist Revolution. Watching the Peoples Liberation Army response to Pelosi’s visit, it’s clear that the U.S. doesn’t want to mix it up with Beijing or make things a lot worse for Taiwan. No one in Taiwan was willing to tell Pelosi to stay away and not rock-the-boat, but Pelosi’s visit showed a ferocity of Chinese force not wanted in Taipei or anywhere around the planet. Watching the PLA breach Taiwan’s Defense Identification Zone was nothing new but encircling the Island sent a clear message to the U.S. navy that defending Taiwan would be no easy feat for the Biden White House.
If Biden had normal relations with Beijing, it would be a different story but clearly they’ve been pushing the limits, accusing Beijing March 18, 2021 at a get-to-know-you summit in Anchorage, Alsaska of genocide against Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang province in Western China. Starting off the wrong foot, 59-year-old Secretary of State Antony Blinen and 45-year-old National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan did much of the damage early on. So, when President Joe Biden said May 23 that he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, he sent Beijing into frenzy. From day former President Jimmy Carter signed the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, forcing the U.S. government to recognize only one China, the one in Beijing, Taiwan no longer enjoyed the defense shield from the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty. Then Pelosi visited Taiwan Aug. 2, infuriating Beijing.
Watching the PLA’s furious response to Taiwan, it makes you wonder whether Pelosi needed to stir up a hornet’s nest with her visit. Chinese President Xi Jinping, 69, thinks that Biden and Pelosi have breached the Taiwan Relations Act, acting overtly to support the democratic island nation of Taiwan. Most military experts don’t expect any change in Beijing policy toward Taiwan for years, something accelerated by Biden’s May 23 statement and Pelosi’s Aig. 2 visit. With so little trust between the White House and Beijing, it’s going to take time to repair the damage. Biden needs to stop making incendiary comments about defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Whether it happens or not, Biden won’t be around to see the event, if it happens at all. But to make incendiary remarks that undermine U.S.-Chinese relations should stop immediately before Biden pushes China to the brink.
PLA drills in the Taiwan Strait indicate a new round of escalation, something viewed in Taiwan as a bluff. But things are different now that Xi Jinping seeks another five-year term at the Chinese Communist Party Congress in November. Xi wants to show he’s no pushover when it comes to standing up to the United States. When the Philappines took Beijing to the International Court of Arbitration at the Hague in 2015, China ignored the court’s ruling about freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. China has built out a series of military bases on shallow atolls near the Spratly Islands. Blinken infuriates Beijing accusing China of ignoring the “rules-based order.” Biden thinks it’s OK for the U.S. open up a proxy war against the Russian Federation, claiming it’s within the “rules-based order,” accusing Russia of a bullying power. Blinken never talks about U.S. provocation.
Biden and Blinken need to ask how far are they willing to push Beijing on the issue of Taiwan independence. Blinken had to walk back Biden’s May 23 comments, saying there’s been no change in the U.S. policy under the Taiwan Relations Act. “We will probably see different elements of what China has been doing this week become a much more regular occurrence,” said M. Taylor Favel, MIT Director of Security Studiers. “There’s a new normal or a new status quo, in terms of kind of military presence that will have around Taiwan,” said Favel, offering no suggestions what the Biden White House could do differently. How about not making provocative statements or actions that undermine the Taiwan Relations Act? Once Xi concluded that Biden and Pelosi offered Taiwan U.S. military defense, the Chinese Communist Party rejected any attempt to support Taiwan’s independence.
Biden and Blinken have done everything possible to alienate China since taking office, now facing a possible war in Taiwan. Blinken finds himself shuttling all over the world, today in South Africa trying to drum up support for the Ukraine War. If he and Biden keep provoking China, what’s he going to do then? Go around the globe hoping to get support for his new war in Taiwan. Before it’s too late, Biden and Blinken must make all the right overtures to Beijing, letting them know that the U.S. wants to be a responsible partner and will no longer interfere on matters related to Taiwan independence. Getting back to some normal relations with Beijing should be the White House’s top priority together with ending its senseless proxy war in Ukaine. Blinken got a cold shoulder in South Africa seeking support for Ukraine and would surely get the same message for any war with China.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
