Venezuela’s 35-year-old self-appointed president Juan Guaido hinted that if 56-year-old President Nicolas Maduro doesn’t resign soon he could call in the U.S. military for regime change. Involving the U.S. military in Veneauela’s internal affairs could be risky business, considering Maduro enjoys the strong backing of Russian President Vladimr Puin and Chinese Presider Xi Jinping, both have spent billions building Venezuela’s oil infrastructure. Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel and Raul Castro, brother of Cuba’s Communist leader Fidel Castro, First Secretary of Cuba’s Socialist Committee, also back Maduro, calling into question the advisability of military intervention. National Assembly Leader Guaido said he would do “everything that is necessary . . . to save human lives,” admitting that calling in the U.S. military would be a controversial move.
Whether admitted to or not, there’s no love of the U.S. in rank-and-file Venezuelan citizens, brainwashed for years under the late President Hugo Chavez to despise the U.S. for its exploitive foreign policy in Latin America. Guaido wants the Venezuelan military, previously loyal to Chavez, to mutiny against Maduro, throwing its support to his new pro-Democracy government. Guaido enjoys the support of the U.S., 40 other countries, with some 20 backing him from the European Union. Not one country has offered military assistance to topple Maduro, establishing Democratic rule in Venezuela. Like so many foreign policy challenges, only the U.S. has the resources and will to stand up to tyranny around the globe. Maduro’s government has driven Venezuela into ruins, leaving the country with hyperinflation and widespread shortages of fuel, food and basic supplies.
Venezuela still holds the largest oil reserves on the planet, even larger than Saudi Arabia. Yet, despite its oil industry, Venezuela finds itself with a failed economy and social system not capable to delivering basic food and supplies to its shirking population of nearly 42 million. Millions of Venezuelans have immigrated due to deplorable social and economic conditions. “We’re going to do everything that has a lower social cost that generates governability and stability to deal with the emergency,” Guaido said. But without U.S. help, Guaido’s hard-pressed to fulfill any of the promises of social and economic stability. Shoring up the Venezuelan economy could take years even with generous U.S. support and logistical assistance. Maduro has rejected a U.S. effort to provide humanitarian aid, including food and medicine, using the military to block deliveries from Columbia.
Maduro calls the relief operation “fake humanitarian aid,” saying the crisis was “fabricated by Washington” to justify military intervention. Guaido warned Maduro not to stop the humanitarian aid operation, suggesting that further steps would be taken to protect the Venezuelan people. Maduro claims that some 300,000 Venezuelan lives hang in the balance without U.S. humanitarian assistance. “The first stage is containing the emergency. Two days ago eight children under three lost their lives . . dehydrated, malnourished,” Guaido said. Under Maduro, Venezuela’s public services including water, sewage, electricity, transportation, medial services, including medicines, have collapsed, leaving the population in danger. Maduro’s attempt to deny Venezuela’s desperate states shows he’s unwilling to take any responsibility, only concerned about preserving his power.
Guaido insist the Venezuelan constitution support his assumption of presidential power, required to set up a transitional government, holding new presidential elections at the earliest time. Maduro has threatened to hold new parliamentary election to get rid of Guaido, something opposed by the U.S. or EU. Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have promised that if Maduro uses the military against Guaido, the U.S. would send military help. While supplying some paramilitary forces, Russia doesn’t have the resources to stop U.S. military intervention. “We’ll do everything we have to in a sovereign and autonomous manner to achieve and end to the usurpation, a transitional government and free elections,” said Guaido. Guaido warned Maduro that blocking humanitarian aid, “inhibiting the entry of this aid could be seen as a crime against humanity,” prompting U.S. military assistance.
Facing the most consequential crisis of his presidency, Trump must decide whether to lend Guaido military assistance to stop the Maduro regime from preventing shipments of vital food and medicine to Venezuela. Maduro wants Venezuela’s armed forces to abandon Maduro for the good of the country, much the way Egpyt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi saved Egypt June 8, 2014 from the Muslim Brotherhood. If Trump decides to intervene, he isn’t likely to encounter resistance from Russia and China, according to the Eurasia Group think tank. “I’m not very worried . . .Maduro hasn’t had a new line of credit since 2016,” Guaido said, attesting to Venezuela’s economic collapse. Guaido thinks Russia and China don’t want to defend Maduro because he can’t save the Venezuelan economy, even with the biggest oil reserves on the planet, not to mention billions in gold bullion.
