LOS ANGELES (OC).–Rejecting President Donald Trump’s 15-point plan to end the Iran War, Iran tests Trump[ resolve to start hitting Iran’s major energy sites, something Trump warned over the weekend giving Iran 48-hours to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s hardliners are pushing Trump to take more destruction action on its energy sector. Iran has been emboldened by ballistic missile strikes on Israel and the Arab Gulf States, prompting Iran to no compromise on any realistic peace plan. Trump said that if Iran doesn’t open up the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic he would take new steps to take out Iran’s energy infrastructure. Wall Street was betting the war could be winding down, watching markets rise over the last few trading sessions. If Trump is forced by to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure look to Wall Street to start selling off again.
Trump gave Iran a fair 15-point plan that lifted all economic sanctions in exchange for Iran allowing the U.N.’s International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] to supervise its nuke program, limiting uranium enrichment to only commercial purposes. Trump insisted that Iran open up the Strait of Hormuz and no longer restrict ordinary shipping through the Persian Gulf. Iran responded to Trump plans demanding that it be given sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, a recognized international waterway, controlled by no nations. Iran also demanded to settle the conflict that the U.S. pay war reparations something Trump due under any conditions. Iran’s demand for war reparations won’t sit well with Trump because he considers Iran at war with the U.S. and Israel for many years. Iran’s new mullah government wants to call Trump’s bluff to humiliate the United States.
Instead of working with Egpyt, Turkey and Pakistan to find a way out for Iran, they’re acting like they’re calling the shots. Four weeks of war has watched Iran’s military decismated, all but destroying its navy. If Trump makes good on his threat to hit Iran’s electrical grid, Tehran’s 9.7 million residents could find themselves in the dark. Iran’s blanket rejection of Trump’s 15-point plan shows that its willing to risk a far more destructive war to mullah rule. If the lights and water go out in Tehran, the population could step up its revolts. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and Basij militia have been cracking down on street protesters, killing and jailing thousands to hold onto power. Trump’s plan to arm-and-fund the Iranian Kurds could provide all the boots on the ground to topple the mullah government. Wall Street won’t be happy if Trump escalates the conflict.
Dispatching the 82nd Airborne to Iran, Trump hopes to send Tehran a message that he means business when it comes to opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has spent years fortifying the relatively narrow [22 miles] strait of Hormuz to arbitrarily block normal shipping through the international waterway. Claiming sovereignty over the Strait now won’t sit well with the White House, once hoping that European allies would take an active role in opening up the global waterway. Trump fournd no one in Europe interested in getting involved in the war because of a lack of consultation. If Trump telegraphed what he planned to do, it would have been all over the headlines, sabotaging his military aims. Trump finds himself prosecuting the war on his own without help from countries than depend on the free flow of oil and liquefied natural gas from the Persian Gulf.
Whatever Trump does to end the conflict, he’s on his own, figuring out what would finally break Tehran’s unrealistic demands and refusal to end the war. Trump’s 15-poin plan was designed to give Iran the opportunity to start selling its oil on the global stage without restrictions. Iran’s mullah regime doesn’t want Trump dictating what it can do with its nuke and ballistic missile programs, something it considers essential for its security. Any country watching Iran’s response to the U.S. and Israeli military interventions knows that Iran lacks the defenses needed to stop the ongoing bombardment of its military. Pushing Trump to start destroying its energy infrastructure would be a bad choice for Iran’s mullah leaders. Without electricity in Tehran, the public could easily rise up again, demanding that the mullah government step down.
If Iran does not take Trump’s peace overtures seriously, it should brace itself for losing power in Tehran. Iran’s mullah leaders want to call Trump’s bluff when it comes to his ultimaturm on opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Demanding that it retain sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz is exactly the kind of defiance that would prompt Trump and Netanyahu to start bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure. When it comes to U.S. troops arriving soon in the Middle East, it doesn’t mean Trump would deploy boots on the ground in any combat role. More likely, U.S. forcs would be used to train the Kurds if they decide that it’s in their best interest to topple the mullah regime to carve-out and independent Kurdish state. If Iran remains defiant, it could open up a new phase in the war, going after Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran should take Trump seriously before it’s too late.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
