LOS ANGELES (OC).–Ending the Iran War got more complicated for President Donald Trump as intermediaries like Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan all say that the defiant Iranian Republic Guard Corps [IRGC] has taken over any peace discussions, making demands for the U.S. and Israel of war reparations. Trump threatened to start striking Iran’s energy infrastructure over the weekend, actually giving Iran on his Truth Social platform 48-hours to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Trump walked back his threat extending his deadline another five days to see if intermediaries could make progress. Some reports have elements inside the IRGC demanding that it wants international recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. International law of the seas requires the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to be unimpeded, open to all commercial shipping without interference.
Iran’s expectations of reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and a binding agreement that the U.S. and Israel would no longer commit future aggression. Given Iran’s propensity to enrich uranium and manufacture more lethal ballistic missiles, it would be difficult for the U.S. and Israel to commit to anything in the future. So, when it comes to meeting Iran’s conditions to end the current war, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must allow intermediaries to reason with Tehran. Tehran’s mullah government is in no mood to negotiate anything with the U.S. and Israel. Even if Trump wanted to end the conflict, he would have to end it unilaterally, knowing that Iran would still control the Strait of Hormuz and some 20% of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Trump and Netanyahu had many military objectives when the war started Feb. 28.
Pakistan offered to hold peace talks in Islamabad to end the war that’s cause so much disruption in world markets. Trump and Netanyahu must decide together whether the time is right to end the conflict, knowing that most military objectives have been achieved on Iran’s nuke and ballistic missile programs. Whatever damage to Iran’s ballistic missile program, Iran continues to fire long-range missiles into Israel, U.S. military bases around the Mideast and infrastructure in Arab Gulf States. Arab Gulf States would like to see an end to the conflict, largely because it interrupted normal business and tourism. Building back any trust in Iran won’t be easy for any of the Arab Gulf States attacked during the conflict. But with the IRGC taking over peace talks, if you can call them that, it’s not going to be easy for Iran to end the war without saving face.
Iran has been largely humiliated during the war, exposing for all to see the lack of effective air defenses around the country. Trump may have no other choice but to go ahead with his plan to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure. Tehran gives no indication it’s ready at this point to end the war. Trump can’t end it unilaterally until there’s clarity on opening up the Strait of Hormuz something that hasn’t happened yet. Iran has spent years fortifying its positions to control the Strait of Hormuz for years, hijacking and attacking tankers much the same way as Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. Trump and Netanyahu have struck the Houthis on several occasions to stop the hijacking and terrorism on the high seas. When it comes to Tehran, it’s even more complicated because Iran has used Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah to do its dirty work in Israel and t he Mideast.
Iran isn’t likely to trust any agreement preventing the U.S. or Israel from aggressions in the future. Much has to do with Iran’s approach to sponsoring terror group around the Mideast to attack the U.S. and Israel. Trump would be less inclined to enter any agreement that tied the U.S. hands at self-defense in the future. Trump said he and Netanyahu struck Iran because there were an imminent threat to U.S. and Israeli national security. When national counterintelligence czar Joe Ken resigned March 17, he denounced Trump’s war, saying that Iran posed no thereat to the United States. Trump disagreed, saying Kent wasn’t doing his job. Democrats and the fake news used Kent’s resignation to discredit the reasons behind the the Iran War. Trump finds himself in the difficult position of running any ceasefire or peace plans through intermediaries with no direct talks with Iran.
Ending the Iran War won’t be easy as long as Iran thinks it can no be the aggressor in the Persian Gulf. Iran hold the world oil supplies hostage, refusing to allow safe passage of any ships from the Arab Gulf States. Only countries that buy cheap Iranian oil like India, China and Pakistan get safe passage through the Persian Gulf. Trump has walked a dangerous line on preventing, if at all possible, U.S. casualties. As it stands today, 13 U.S. soldiers have been killed by Iranian air strikes with 232 wounded, at least 10 seriously. When it comes to rooting out Iranian positions in the Strait of Hormuz it would risk more U.S. casualties especially if boots on the ground were used in combat. Trump has little choice but to continue prosecuting the war until Iran takes peace seriously. Getting Iran now to end the conflict won’t be easy as it proves it still has military capability.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
