Ukrainian military commanders in Donbas confirmed that that a new Russian offensive has begun, before the expected target date of Feb. 24, 2023, the one year anniversary of the Ukraine War. “We can conclude that a certain escalation has already begun,” said Serhii Haidai, head of the Luhansk region military administration. Ukraine’s military commanders say that attacks have intensified around Kreminna, a Russian occupied city in Luhansk, home to key ground communication. Haidai said Ukraine’s military repulsed the Russian advance. “We can say de facto that this is part of the full-scale offensive that Russia has been planning,” Haidai said. Kiev’s 44-year-old President Voldymyr Zelensky has said he’s waiting for U.S., German and British tanks before challenging the Russian advance. Putin put the U.S., U.K. and Germany on notice that they’re directly participating in the Ukraine War.
Kiev and Washington have committed to escalating the conflict adding tanks to Ukraine’s arsenal at the same time asking the U.S., U.K. and Germany for missiles and fighter jets, something so far that hasn’t happened. But whatever advanced weapons Ukraine gets, it’s never enough to challenge the Russian offensive, called war atrocities by Kiev officials. “Russia throws colossal amounts of weapons and people to attack Ukraine and has been for some time,” said Haidai, not saying when Ukraine would have the battle tanks and ong-range missiles requested. Since losing 25% of its sovereign territory in one year, Zelensky has promised Washington and Kiev that he plans to recapture the lost territory. Yet every time the Ukrainian army fails to reclaim lost territory, Zelensky promises to double down on his military response. U.S. President Joe Biden said he would back Ukraine as long as it takes.
Biden introduced Ukraine’s U.S. Amb. Oksana Markarova at the Feb. 7 State of the Union speech, assuring her the U.S. would not give up on Ukraine. Biden has tried to keep the U.S. and European Union coalition going, promising that, with more lethal weapons, Kiev would eventually oust the Russian military. No one knows how long that would take, if ever, to rid Ukraine of all Russian troops. Russian forces were in Donetsk and Luhansk before the Feb. 24, 2022 war and no doubt will continue to park in Russian-controlled territories for the foreseeable future. Zelensky has moved the goal posts in the last year, now seeking to rid Ukraine of all Russian troops. Before the war began, Russia troops were in Donbas, supporting Russian-speaking residents from acquiescing to Kiev’s demands. Kiev claims that over 15,000 Ukrainian civilians and military have been killed since 2008.
Whether Russia escalates it’s fighting for not, Zelensky must decide how he wants to proceed in the future. If he decides to keep the war going, he can expect a grinding stalemate where neither side makes much progress. Even using U.S., German and U.S. battle tanks doesn’t guarantee that Ukraine will get back its lost sovereign territory or work toward ridding the country of Russian troops. Chairman of the Join Chiefs of State Gen. Mark Miley, 64, said there’s only a political solution to the Ukraine conflict. If that’s the case, why does Biden insist on giving Kiev more lethal weapons to fight the Russian Federation? A Ukrainian soldier named Anton said the fighting has intensified around the front lines in Donbas. “The fighting has intensified. They launched another offensive last night. So far, we are holding our position, it’s its tough,” Anton reports on the front line.
If the war under the best of times is a stalemate, Kiev would be better off letting U.N. peacemakers come up with a plan to end the conflict. Battling the Kremlin to loggerheads is not answer for Kiev. More progress in reclaiming lost territory would happen with peace talks over continuing the bloodshed and destruction of Ukraine infrastructure. Zelensky has recently asked the EU for more lethal weapons, including fighter jets, promising to vanquish the Russian military. But if the last year has taught any lesion, Russian can more than hold its own in Ukraine. No matter how many battles Zelensky claims victory, the fact remains that Russia controls some 25% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, making the outcome for progress more in doubt. Instead of looking to escalate the war, Zelensky should be looking to get Putin to the peace table to negotiate a return of sovereign territory.
Zelensky and Biden have some big decisions to make before the Russian offensive gets underway. Both need to look to the future of the best way to restore Ukraine’s sovereignty without more carnage and infrastructure destruction. Zelensky with U.S. cash-and-lethal weapons shows zero interest in moving the conflict to the peace table. Biden and Zelensky thinks if Ukraine can hit Russia with more tanks and missiles, Putin will agree to bigger concessions at the peace table. Whether that’s pure conjecture or not, the longer the war goes, the more casualties the Kremlin sustains, the more difficult finding a settlement. Waiting for tanks, missile and fighter jets, Zelensky makes more excuse why he’s lost more ground to Putin. Whether the war has ground to a halt or not, Zelensky and Biden must accept that there’s no better path to a mutually beneficial settlement than the peace table.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
