Getting down to crunch time in reviving the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] AKA “The Iranian Nuke Deal,” Iran’s 60-year-old new president Ibrahim Raisi rebuffed Western pressure. Unlike 72-year-old past Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, Raisi is a rubber stamp of Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei was unhappy with the JCPOA negotiated over two-year period by 61-year-old former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif and 77-year-old former Secretary of State John Kerry. Zarif was dismissed and replaced by 57-year-old Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, both now carbon copies of the Ayatollah’s radical agenda. Zarif was fired for accidental public remarks that said Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had too much say in Iran’s foreign policy. That was the end of Zarif’s career as Foreign Minister.
New reports from the U.N.’s Vienna-based nuclear watch dog, the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], said the traces of uranium found at previously undisclosed nuclear sites plus urgent access to IAEA’s monitoring equipment raise red flags whether of not Iran was ever in compliance on the JCPOA. Former President Donald Trump, 75, recognizing Iran’s noncompliance with the Nuke Deal, including Tehran’s proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and Israel, cancelled the JCPOA May 8, 2018. Ending U.S. involvement infuriated Iran when Trump slapped Iran with snap-back sanctions, preventing Iran from selling oil on world markets. While Iran has done practically everything to circumvent Trump’s sanctions, they have retaliated with drone strike on Israel and Saudi oil refineries. Raisi echoes the Ayatollah’s position that the U.S. must end all sanctions before returning to the table.
Raisi warned the P5+1, including the U.S., U.K., France, Russian, China and Germany not to push Iran by complaining too much to the IAEA at its board of governors meeting. “In the event of a counterproductive approach at the IAEA, it would not make sense to expect Iran to react constructively. Counterproductive measures are naturally disruptive to the negotiation path also,” Raisi warned European Council President Charles Michel. Iran suspended nuclear talks months ago, while the Ayatollah fired Zarif and replaced him with hardliner Amir-Abollahian. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, 56, knew exactly the extent of Iran’s noncompliance with the original JCPOA, making the agreement unverifiable and unenforceable, something Iran wanted from the get original JCPOA. IAEA inspectors were prohibited for going into Iran’s secret military enrichment sites.
Former President Barack Obama, 60, had no enforcement provision in the JCPOA, handing Iran $1.6 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief, allowing Iran to sell petroleum freely in world markets. Trump officials scratched their heads watching the JCPOA as unverifiable while, at the same time, watching Iran use Yemen’s Houthi rebels to wage proxy war against Saudi Arabia. When cruise missile hit the Riyadh International Airport and then Aramco oil refineries, Trump has seen enough, canceling the JCPOA May 8, 2018. Since then, remaining P5+1 powers did everything to return to the agreement, believing it was better than nothing. Iran agreed in 2015 to limit uranium enrichment to 3.5%, enough for reactor fuel but not for an A-bomb. Western nuclear experts accused Iran to stockpiling weapons grade uranium, prompting Obama to seek any nuke deal.
Installing Raisi Aug. 5 and Amir-Abollahlian Aug. 24, the Ayatollah signals to the P5+1 that Iran will call the shots when it comes to reinstating the JCPOA or not. “I’m not going to put a date on it but we are getting closer to the point at which a strict return to compliance with the JCPOA [nuclear deal] does not reproduce the benefits that agreement achieved,” said 58-year-old Secretary of State Tony Blinken. Western diplomats fear that Iran’s breakout time to an A-bomb has been greatly shortened since it’s been enriching uranium to over 60%. But regardless of new concerns about breakout time, Iran has never had its secret nuclear sites inspected since Obama inked the Nuke Deal July 15, 2015. So when it comes to any reassurance that Iran is telling the truth about its nuclear stockpile, there’s no guarantee. Getting back into the old JCPOA does nothing for U.S. national security.
Leaders at the European Union [EU], primarily soon-to-be retiring German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron all want to return to the JCPOA ASAP. But both know that Iran hasn’t been truthful from Day 1 about its nuclear stockpile, continuing to deny that it has its sights on an A-bomb. When the 35-nation IAEA Board of Governors meets next month Raisi warned that any negative statement coming from the IAEA would all but kill reinstating the JCPOA. Anyone believing that Iran has been honest about anything related to their nuke programs isn’t facing reality. Trump got it right canceling the deal because he knew Iran was grossly out of compliance, waging proxy war all over the Middle East. “We find out selves at a moment of discussing with all our partners in the agreement how to react to this,” said German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas.
