LOS ANGELES (OC).–Postponing a strike on Iran’s biggest electricity plant, President Donald Trump signaled that backchannel talks were going on with Iran to end the war, something Wall Street took favorably with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rocketing up 631 points. Wall has been gittery for the last three weeks of the Iran War, not know what to do, but, for the most part, selling off some 2,000 points. Today’s rebound indicates that The Street sees positive signs that Trump may be near to ending the four-week old war. West Texas intermediate crude finished the day down nearly 10% at $86 a barrel, down from over $100 in the last trading session. Energy markets have been gyrating over the last four weeks due to Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Trump gave Iran a 48-hour deadline to open the Strait over the weekend or face strike on its energy infrastructure.
When Trump announced that backchannel talks were showing signs of life, he postponed more military action, prompting Wall Stsreet to jump into rally mode. Trump has been playing the Iran War purely by instincts, wanting to degrade Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile capability, something that’s wreaked havoc in Israel and the Arab Gulf States. Iran once had workable diplomatic relations with the Arab Gulf States but now faces the worst diplomatic relations in his history. Striking Riyadh, Doha, Kuwait City, Abu Dhabi and Dubai have turned Arab Gulf States into mortal enemies. Iran miscalculated thinking that by striking the Arabl Gulf States they would pressure Trump to end the war. Arab Gulf States have asked Trump to jump into the war with Tehran, something Trump discouraged. Arab Gulf State won’t mend fences with Tehran anytime soon.
Trump wants Tchran to open up the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway that provides passage of 20% of the world’s crude oil from the Persian Gulf. Once Iran started attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, world crude oil prices went through the roof, now at close to $90 a barrel. Once Trump delayed striking Iran, Wall Street took that as a favorable sign to Wall Street to expect crude oil prices and inflation to go down quickly. Democrats and the fake news have been hammering Trump on the Iran War, claiming Trump has no clear objective, but, more importantly, no exit strategy. Trump could end the war at anytime once Iran agrees to open up the Strait of Hormuz and agree, for the future, that they have no legal right to shut down an international waterway. Arab Gulf State depend on a free Persian Gulf to get their oil to markets around the globe.
Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu realize they achived most of the military objective on Iran’s nuke and ballistic missile program. While it’s true Iran can still fire ballistic missiles from its disguised mobile rocket lauchers, it’s also true Iran’s military has been significantly degraded. So, when it comes to ending the war, there’s not much left other than a long-range plan to topple the mullah regime. Without an active popular uprising, Trump isn’t about to put U.S. boots on the ground, preferring instead, to work with the Kurds to eventually topple the mullah regime. When it comes to stopping Iran’s state sponsored terrorism, Trump realized that his air war can’t complete that goal. Only an armed group like the Kurds could prevent Iran to sponsoring various proxy groups to promote terrorism. Arab Gulf State have moved on from the Palestinians.
So when it comes it comes Arab Gulf State backing the Palestinian cause of destroying Israel, they see Israel an ally in today’s Middle East. Arab Gulf States don’t want war with Israel, no longer find common ground with Iran to back the Palestinian plight to topple the Jewish State. Arab Gulf States are all about business development, creating the world most sophisticated tourism with luxury accommodations and state-of-the-art shopping. So, when Trump talks about working on plan to end the Iran War, Wall Street jumps at the opportunity to go into rally mode. Democrats and the fake news accuse Trump of manipulating financial markets when he’s trying to give the best read possible on what’ happening with the war. Looking at the big picture, there’s no much left for Trump to accomplish in Iran, other than opening up Strait of Homuz.
Without tipping his hand to Iran or the fake news, Trump plays his hand close to the vest when it comes to ending the Iran War. Iran wants guarantees that Iran will respect international law and open the Strait of Hormuz to ordinary shipping, primarily from the Arab Gulf States. Forced to use the Red Sea and Suez Canal Arab Gulf States have incurred longer waits and more costs had they been able to use the Persian Gulf. Prolonging the Iran War to open up the Hormuz Strait make less sense than working out some diplomatic agreement through an intermediary like Switzerland to keep the waterway open to normal shipping. When it comes to bringing about regime change, that’s a long-term strategy using the Kurds to eventually bring about a change of governments in Tehran. Trump has done everything possible to degrade Iran’s military threat to the Mideast.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.TR
