LOS ANGELES (OC).–President Donald Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz, an international waterway used by Gulf Arab States to get oil to various markets around the world. Gult States have diverted oil shipments to the Red Sea and Egypt’s Suez Canal causing more costs and time to get the oil to oil to market. Commodity markets watched oil prices surge to over $100 per barrel, price not seen since the 2000 global pandemic. Trump warning to Iran prompted hardliners to promise more missile attacks on key infrastructure,, including desalination and electricity plants in Arab Gulf States, promising a escalation to the ongoing war with Iran. Whatever damage the U.S. and Israel claim to the Iranian ballistic missile capability, Iran’s mullah regime continues to fire guided missiles into Israel and the Arab Gulf States creating panic and disruption.
Trump’s threat to start hitting Iran’s energy infrastructure hard comes with mixed reaction from financial markets. When Israel said it would join the fight to open the Strait of Hormuz the price of oil dropped quickly, attesting to the world’s need to see the Strait of Hormuz open without delay. Foreign governments in Asia and Europe, who receive substantial amounts of oil from the Persian Gulf, should respond to Iran’s illegal activity to strike any tanker that doesn’t have Tehran’s specific approval. Tehran has no legal authority to block a global waterway, approved by the International Court of Justice at the Hague. Tehran has no legal standing to shutdown the Strait of Hormuz other that an act of defiance in the middle of a war with the U.S. and Israel. Iran’s mullah government has been lashing out at everyone it sees as an enemy of the mullah regime.
Trump’s war with Iran was about neutralizing capacity to wage war against the U.S., Israel and Arab Gulf State neighbors. With Iran’s mobile rocket launchers spread around the county, it’s been a challenge for the U.S. and Israel to knock them out. With Iran still firing missiles at Israel and the Arab Gulf States, it’s obvious they still, no matter how reduced, have the capacity to strike various targets in the Middle East. “If Iran doesn FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST,” Trump said on his Social Network platform. Iran responded quickly saying it would hit Israel and Arab Gulf States desalination and electricity plants in response to Trump’s threats.
U.S. and Israel must decide how far they’re willing to take the war, knowing the reaction when markets open tomorrow. No one wants to see an escalation in the war but to climb down from the aggressive talk about the U.S. and Israel opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Unless there’s a magic formula to opening up the Strait, hitting Iranian positions would escalate the war, causing financial markets to gyrate when markets open tomorrow. Whatever the U.S. did to Iran’s ballistic missile program, it’s still operational, continuing to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli military operations. Trump can’t figure out why U.S. European allies and Britain have been reluctant to help open up the Strait of Hormuz. Europe nd the U,K. knows Iran would retaliate in the future with oil shipments. Trump said the U.S. gets no Persian Gulf oil and should not carry to sole burden of opening up the waterway.
Iran allows oil tankers from its allies in India, China and Pakistan to go through the Strait of Hormuz without attacks. So, Iran has taken to playing Somali pirates in the Persian Gulf, all because of desperate measure to survive the ongoing war. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would like to see regime change in Iran. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi’s son, Reza Pahlavi, would like to run an interim government that moves Iran toward democracy and away from the current theocracy. Older generations of Iranians know what life was like under the Shah of Iran. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi had close ties to the U.S., adopting many of Western democratic priniciples. Iran’s mullah regime rails against its enemies in the Arab Gulf States. At one time, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei did everything to develop better diplomacy relations.
Before Trump escalates the war hitting Iran’s energy infrastructure, he should consider the damage already done to Iran’s nuke and ballistic missile programs. Iran’s mullah regime is purely in survival more trying to hold onto power. Whether the mullah regime is weakened enough to hang onto power is anyone’s guess. But it Trump wants to accomplish his goal of regime change, he should arm-and-fund the Iranian Kurds, ready-and-willing to take on the challenge to carving a homeland in Iran. Trump doesn’t need U.S. boots on the ground in Iran, only to coordinate a long-term strategy with the Kurds. Trump needs to weigh the benefits-and-costs of battling Iran’s Republicans Guards in the Strait of Hormuz, not knowing what it would take to eventually prevail. No country should tolerate Iran treating the Persian Guld as its own backyard, violating international law.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
