LOS ANGELES (OC).–Iran’s so-called Assembly of Experts picked 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the late Ayatollah Ali Khemenei, as Iran’s next Supreme Leader. Kept out of the public for most his career, the younger Khamenei is considered even more hard line that his father, prompting President Donald Trump to say his pick was “unacceptable.” Trump had wanted to pick Iran’s next leader so the war could be resolved, something Iran now says will go on indefinitely. Iran says the war will go on but every day that the war continues Iran loses more of its military infrastructure, something OK with the U.S. and Israel, prompting Iran’s new leader to show more defiance. Israel said that Mojtaba is a prime target for elimination, knowing there will be no real peace with the new Ayatollah at the helm. Trump finds himself in a more protracted war than he would like.
Trump finds the unintended consequence of Iran War creating domestic problems back at home. Oil spiked to over $110 per barrel, leaving consumers frustrated with unexpected high prices. Whether Trump admits it or not, the war with Iran is causing pain at home, not to mention the loss of seven U.S. soldiers in a single Iranian drone strike in Kuwait. No other U.S. casualties have occurred other than the one freak strike the somehow hit its target in Kuwait. U.S. Army base in Kuwait should have had adequate air defenses to ward off any Iranin drone or missile strike. Trump can expect Democrats and the fake news to milk the Iran War for everything possible especially the affordability issue, something Democrats and the fake news have hammered home to voters. Spiraling energy prices spell more inflation making the Federal Reserve Board’s job all the more difficult.
When it comes to the Iran War, Trump must rethink his objectives when it comes to regime change. Iran’s mullah government still functions without Ayatollah Khaemenei, meaning there’s no popular uprising capable of toppling the government. Trump told Iranian recently to take back their government but how’s that supposed to happen when the Republican Guard Corp and Basij militia control all the weapons. Street protesters found out recently what happens when the speack out with over 36,000 slaughtered by the mullah regime, with thousands more incarcerated awaiting liquidation. Trump best hope of making any progress in Iran is opening up the Strait of Humuz through which 20% of the weeorld’s oil supply passes. If Trump confronts Iran’s blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, it would go a long way in in opening up shipping lanes for the international oil trade.
Iran doesn’t have the naval resources to stop the U.S. from opening up the Strait of Hormuz. Opening up the Strait would stop the spiraling global oil market, signaling that oild supplies from the Gulf Arab States would be bountiful again. When it comes to Mojtaba Khamenei Trump can live with any leader as long as he can control global waterways. Allowing Iran to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz shows that the U.S. navy isn’t in control of military operations around the Persian Gulf. Opening up the Strait of Hormuz would be a major military victory for Trump, far bigger than looking for regime change. U.S. and Israel must decide at some point whether there’s a diminishing return to the Iran War. Degrading Iran’s capacity to wage war or setting back the nuclear enrichment program is all that Trump can expect to get from the current war.
When the fake news reports U.S. causalities, they say seven members of the U.S. military have been lost in combat. Seven members of the U.S. military were killed in only one drone strike in Kuwait, no other places. So, promoting the idea that U.S. soldiers are dying in combat situations in Iran is a false narrative. Only one drone strike in Kuwait cause the seven U.S. casualties. Trump was asked whether he intends to put U.S. boots on the ground in Iran. Trump said he’s not considering doing that now or in the future. Trump doesn’t want another Iraq War in Iran, he wants to degrade Iran’s military capability, even though he would like. Without a popular uprising there’s little hope for regime change in Iran. Iran’s Republican Guard Corps and Basij militia are firmly in control of the streets in Iran, capable of suppressing any rebellion or popular uprising.
Trump’s goals in Iran must reflect the current facts on the ground that the mullah regime is firmly in control of the streets. Continuing to bomb Iran’s strategic military assets and nuclear enrichment program is the last concrete steps Trump can do to accomplish any military objectives. Whatever happens with Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtab Khamenei, he’s now in control of the mullah government. Iran’s mullah government shows no signs of giving up power anytime soon. Funding or arming the Kurds to stage a civil war in Iran isn’t likely to pay any dividend, only contribute to losses on the Kurd’s side. Trump knows there’s no stomach in the U.S. for fighting a ground war with Iran now or in the future. Given the global oil crisis, Trump would help the situation by seizing control over the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. naval forces must work on opening up the Strait of Hormuz.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
