LOS ANGELES (OC).–President Donald Trump has some big decisions next week on the Iran War, not in its tenth day causing unintended consequences for U.S. and world oil markets. Oil sparked Friday, March 6 to over $90 per barrel, causing pump prices in the U.S. to spike to over five dollar a gallon in California. Wall Street has shed over 2,000 points off the Dow Jones Iindustrial Average with the Nasdaq following close behind. So, when it comes to Trump’s wish in Iran that he could get the mullah regime to cave in, it doesn’t look like it’s happening. Exploring different ways to achieve regime change, Trump now realizes that bombing alone can’t accomplish the goal. He’s now of the belief that only ground troops can bring about regime change something he not willing to do with U.S. troops. Trump now explores partnering with the Iranian Kurds to topple the Tehran regime
Iranian Kurds, living around the Iraq border, know the history with the U.S. when the Kurdish Protection Units [YPG] in Syria partnered with the U.S. to get rid of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [ISIS]. Trump used the Kurds successfully in his first term to claim the U.S. finished off ISIS founder Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi Oct. 27, 2019. While a big accomplishment, the YPG learned bitter lesson when the U.S. opted to pull out of Syria. YPG officials wanted the U.S. to back a Kurdish homeland in Syria, especially after the Dec. 8, 2024 fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. But while Kurds expected the U.S. to honor commitments made during the campaign to get al-Bagdadi, it didn’t stop the Biden administration from getting out of Syria. YPG officials felt abandoned by the U.S. at a time that the U.S. achieve major political objectives getting rid of al-Assad.
So, when it comes to Trump appealing for the YPG or Patriot Union of Kurdistan [PUK], the Kurdish group in Iraq, joining the fight on the ground in Iran, it’s going to take some real arm-twisting. Kurdish groups don’t trust the U.S. to follow-up with promises maed a various time by the U.S. about an independent Kurdistan. “I hope that the Kurds of Iran will not ally themselves with America, becayse they will abandon them, said Saad Ali, a 45-year-old resident of Syrian Kurdistan. Everyone has an opinion but Trump could offer the YPG and PUK autonomy in the eastern part of Iran bordering Iraq. Kurds have wanted a homeland since 1920 when the Treaty of Versailles ignored them, instead granting Ottoman territory to other Mideast countries like Jordan. Whether Trump can make a deal with the Kurds is doubtful at this point because Iran still out numbers-and-guns the Kurds.
Returning six U.S. soldiers to Dover Air Force base in Delaware March 6, Trump stood by saluting the dead soldiers repatriated to the U.S. Getting U.S. ground force battling Iranians Republican Guard force would no doubt produce high numbers of casualties. So, when it comes to regime change, there’s no guarantee that using the Kurds would be successful. Trump would be pressure to reinforce Kurdish fighter with U.S. boots on the ground in Iran to join the fight. Creating more casualties would be disastrous public relations for the White House. All practical reasons point toward Trump declaring victory and pulling U.S. and Israeli forces from Iran. Whether Iran continues to attack Arab Gulf States is anyone’s guess. Iran would see a U.S. and Israel pullout as a major victory. Withdrawing U.S. and Israeli forces must be a the propitious time when Trump can claim victory.
Trump has the very real consequences of the Iran War with spiraling oil prices, promising to sink the U.S. economy for the time being. Once it becomes obvious that Iran, not Trump, picks the next Iranian leader, Trump will pivot U.S. involvement in Iran, if, for no other reason, he’s not willing to put U.S. boots on the ground. Whether it’s the Krudistan Workers Party [PKK] in Turkey, PYK in Syria or PUK in Iraq, all Kurds wants an independents Kurdistan. If Trump were serious about delivering a Kurdish homeland, he has every opportunity in Iran now that the mullah regime has been weakened by U.S. and Israeli strikes. Hitting drone and missile launchers doesn’t mean the Iran doesn’t have enough IRGC troops on the groun in Iran to repel and Kurdish attacks.
Trump must fish-or-cut-bait in Iran, knowing the downward trajectory of the U.S. stock markets and upward spiral in energy prices. For a president that promised abandan energy supplies and low prices, the Iran War has undermined his campaign promises, giving further proof to voters heading into the Midterm elections to vote Democratic. What happened with Trump’s tariff policy as added to federal budget deficits and national debt prompting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to say the treasury needed $1.6 trillion. Trump can’t allow the war to go on indefinitely especially if regime change is now off the table. Israel never sought regime change only to degrade Iran’s drone and ballistic missile lauchers to reduce chances of more attacks in the future. If Trump decided to withdraw, there’s no guarantee that Iran would not continue to lash out.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
