LOS ANGELES (OC).–President Donald Trump told Iran to unconditionally surrender to allow him to pick new leadership to take the country into a bright and more prosperous future. Trump’s pitch to Iran while he’s at war invited the elite Republican Guard Corps and Basij militia to lay down their arms for face near certain death. U.S. and Israeli fighter jets have waged a blistering campaign to degrade Iran’s military defenses, nuclear enrichment and ballistic missile programs, rendering the country incapable of an real defense. Iran’s late Ayatollah Khamenei once boasted about the strength of his army, calling it the most powerful in the Mideast. Last year’s 12-day war with Israel proved to Israel and the U.S. that Iran was a true paper tiger, After a full week of combat, Iran is a shell of its former self despite continuing to fight. Trump told Iran the U.S. was prepared for the the long haul.
Iran finds itself isolated without any backing from Russia or China, primarily because neither country wants to confront the U.S. Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself mired in a blood, grinding war in Ukraine with both sides dug into their positions. Trump tried to broker a peace deal but neither Ukraine nor Russian has been ready to make the concessions necessary to end the over four-year conflict. Trump watches Ukraine and doesn’t want Iran to turn into another bloody street battle by putting U.S. boots on the ground. Unlike the Ukraine War, Trump has waged an entirely air war, using U.S. and Israeli assets to de-fang Iran from continuing to sponsor terrorism in the Middle East. Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, has already caused much damage to Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives Trump all the support he needs to prevail in Iran.
If it weren’t for the Ukraine War, Russia, who’s a strong trading partner with Iran, would have intervened for Iran, keeping U.S. and Israeli forces at bay. But with the Ukraine War usurping all of Russia’s resources, Putin cannot provide Iran anything useful, other that some dubious intelligence about U.S. ships in the Mediterranean. Iran has antagonized its Arab Gulf State neighbors firing missiles at states not involved in the conflict. Iran’s missiles strikes have dramatically slowed by 90% with the U.S. and Israel destroying much of their drone and rocket launchers. Trump has some unintended consequences including the recent spike in oil prices taking crude oil over $90 per barrel. U.S. and foreign consumers are paying some of the highest pump price in years. So, whatever one thinks of the Iran War, it’s no sustainable for more than another few weeks.
Iran counted heavily on Russia and China to build out its military capability, now finding itself isolated from both countries not wanting to intervene militarily. How much longer the mullah regime can hold out is anyone’s guess. Trump would like to see the Shah of Iran’s son, Reza Pahlavi, to lead an interim government to transform Iran from a religious theocracy into a quasi-democratic states. Under the Shah, Iran was officially a monarch but so was Great Britain that eventually morphed iself into a modern, secular democracy. Ayatollah Khamenei still has millions of follower, despite the fact that the vast majority of Iran’s 90 million people want a democracy or at least access of Western values. Iran cannot keep up the pace of attacks one week into the conflict. Something is going to give soon with Iran finding itself on the wrong side of the conflict.
Trump has the political fallout to deal with from high oil prices, not something that sits well with upcoming voters. Whether Trump likes it or not, he faces an unfavorable landscape heading into the 2026 Midterm elections where Democrats would very well take back the House. If that happens, completing his domestic and foreign policy agenda would be an uphill battle. When it comes to Iran, no one expected a war out of the blue where the U.S. and Israel finished up what they left off last June 24 when they ended the war. Trump has been hounded to justify the Iran War, shifting explanations, including possible regime change. Achieving regime change may be more difficult given the time constraints on continuing the war. Trump has a short runway left for he and Nentanyahu to finish the job. Whether that involves regime change looks doubtful at this point.
Rising oil prices helps build Putin’s sagging economy, weighed down by the over four-year Ukraine War. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky seems content to take all the cash he can from the EU and continue low-grade fighting. Unlike Trump, high oil prices and shortages benefit Moscow directly, where Putin has plenty of orders for his cheap crude oil. When it comes to Trump, Ukraine is now on the back-burner while he wages war with Iran. Trump must find himself an off-ramp at some point to stop the spike in oil prices. Putin can sit back and play a waiting game knowing that he’s making more cash than ever on what’s emerging as an oil war. Iran still has the Strait of Hormuz closed. If Trump could reopen the Strait of Hormuz it would go a long way in reassuring oil markets. Russia and China can only look on the Iran War from the sidelines.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
