LOS ANGELES (OC).–President Donald Trump’s chief peace envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner made progress in Berlin with German, French and U.K. officials working on a Ukraine peace deal that works with Moscow. Working with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his negotiating team lead by Rustem Umerov, Witkoff and Kushner managed to make progress on the security issue that seems to elude successful talks, with Zelensky wishing he could join NATO. But Zelensky has been told repeatedly that he doesn’t qualify for NATO membership, but, more importantly, it would be a deal breaker, letting peace talks linger indefinitely. Russian President Vladimir Putin put his cards on the table telling Zelensky that he needs to retain Eastern Donbas, including Donetsk and Luhansk, the same offer he made Zelensky in March 2022.
Zelensky has made post-war security concerns a big deal, largely because he fears Russian seizing more Ukrainian territory after the peace settlement. Zelensky has asked numerous times for NATO membership, even though it would keep the war going indefinitely . If therer’s ever any deal breaker for Putin, it’s having another NATO country on his border. Zelensky wants NATO Article 5 protection for Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression. But Zelensky needs to get along with his Russian neighbor so there isn’t another skirmish. There’s nothing the U.S. and EU can do for Ukraine’s security other than encourage Kiev to get along better with the Russian Federation. Trump wants Zelensky to let him negotiate and permanent settlement to the Ukraine War. No one in the EU knows what to say to Zelensky and Putin to bring about as lasting peace settlement.
EU officials have politely let Witkoff and Kushner to give it their best shot but prefer, like Zelensky, to not cede Russia any land. But the U.S. hasn’t been in direct talks with Putin for months, trying to put a deal together. Putin controls much more land in Ukraine than Eastern Donbas, essentially forfeiting his spoils after costly four year war. Zelensky and the EU should know a deal when they sees one. Zelensky gets to end a destructive conflict than neither Ukraine nor the EU can afford to prosecute. EU officials, led by French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer realized that there’s too much opposition in the EU to confiscate frozen Russian assets, leaving Zelensky out of luck. Zelensky knows that he can’t afford to subsidize the war without EU or U.S. cash. So, all the latest movement toward a deal has to do with that reality.
Witkoff and Kushner told Zelensky they will put security guarantees to a vote in the U.S. Senate where there’s strong backing for the war. If war hawks in the Senate had their way, they’d continue battling the Kremlin something Trump stopped when he took office. Trump realized that diplomatic relations were too important with the Russian Federation, especially getting back to nuclear arms talks and global cooperation. When former President Joe Biden funded proxy war with the Kremlin in Ukraine, it all but killed U.S.-Russian relations. So, developing post-war security assurances for Ukraine isn’t easy because Trump wants no part of any war with the Kremlin. Zelensky’s best security guarantee is learning to get along with Kremlin, not doing something that threatens Russian national security. Joining NATO and taking U.S. arms threatens Russia.
Zelensky wants to join NATO for its Article 5 provision, requiring all NATO members to defend a country from outside attack. Witkoff and Kushner made Zelensky a deal on security that he couldn’t refuse but made it time limited. So, Zelensky, if he wants U.S. security must act promptly to finalize a peace deal. Peace talks with Zelensky will move from Berlin to Mar-a-Lago when Zelensky is ready to sign a deal. Chief Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov said on X “real progress” had been made. Umerov knows that Ukraine would have to cede Eastern Donbas to Putin to make any deal work. Saying he would accept Ukraine joining the EU, Putin tried to offer a concession to end the war. Zelensky must now not look a gift horse in the mouth and accept Trump’s peace deal. Months have gone buy with Zelensky stubbornly resisting Trump’s deal losing more ground to the Kremlin.
Zelensky knows that Ukraine doesn’t meet the standards to join the EU. While EU members say they will eventually welcome Ukraine, Kiev’s war torn economy and debt-to-GDP ratio is just too high to qualify. But if there’s any chance in Ukraine joining, it’s going to be with Trump’s help of rebuilding Ukraine’s beleaguered economy. Nearly four years of war has destroyed Ukraine’s infrastructure, killed thousands and driven millions into exile. Real peace comes with Zelensky’s understanding what it takes to get along with his Russian neighbor. Expecting the U.S. or EU to fight his battles with Putin is unrealistic. EU officials want to get back to doing business with the Kremlin, welcoming Russian cheap gas and petroleum to help lower the EU’s cost-of-living. Zelensky needs to show that he can get along with Russia, not run to the U.S. and EU for security.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
