LOS ANGELES.–President Donald Trump pulled off a remarkable feat with the Pentagon neutralizing Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites, especially the highly choreographed use of seven B-2 Stealth Bombers dropping bunker buster GBU-57 bombs on Iran’s underground Fordo enrichment site. Threatening the U.S. with retaliation, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed revenge with Trump warning him of consequences. Trump tried to go the diplomatic route meeting with Iranian officials five times over two months to enter into a new nuke deal that would contain Iran’s nuclear enrichment programs. After breaching Trump’s deadlines, he gave Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to attack Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites. Netanyahu has done much more that neutralize Iran’s nuke programs, he’s degraded Iran’s military capabilities.
Word today that Iran fired an unknown number of missiles at the Al Udeid U.S. air base in Qatar could prompt Trump to order more strikes on Iran. When Trump ordered the predator drone strike of Iran’s Al Qud’s Gen. Qasem Soleimani Jan. 3, 2020, Iran retaliated firing missiles at the U.S. Al Assad air base in Iraq causing multiple concussive injuries. Trump restrained himself from more strikes on Tehran. Iran’s retaliation may be enough to end the tit-for-tat attacks unless Trump decides to respond. Chances are that without too much damage to U.S. bases, Trump will let the Iranian retaliation stand as its token response. Israel continues to hit Iran hard, the Evin Prison where regime dissidents are housed, airports, headquarters of the Basij militia and Tehran’s Palestine Square where Iran has a clock for the countdown to Israel’s destruction. Iran continues to fire missiles at Israel.
Head of U.N. nuclear watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] Raphel Grossi said it’s possible Iran removed some of its fissile material from the Fordo plant before the U.S. air strikes. “No one—including the IAEA—is in a position to assess the underground damage at the Fordo site. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine said the site received “severed damage and destruction.” “We must return to negotiating table and allow the IAEA inspectors, the guardians of the NPT [nuclear nonproliferation treaty] to go back to Iran’s nuclear sites and account for the stockpiles of uranium, including, most importantly, the 400kg enriched to 60%,” Grossi said. Grossi said before the U.S. strikes that Iran was completely out of compliance with the NPT. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he didn’t think Iran had a change to move its nuclear stockpile.
Iran’s response today hitting Iraq’s Al-Assad air base and Qatar’s Al-Udeid airbase was a face-saving way to deescalate the conflict. Trump must decide whether or no he wants to keep the tit-for-tat going or move the crisis back to the negotiating table, especially where the IAEA can regain control over what’s left, if anything, of Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Netanyahu continues to degrade Iran’s military but the days for continuing the Israeli air strikes are numbered. If Iran’s Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuke sites are destroyed, there’s no longer a need to Netanyahu to continue the war. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran “reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest and people,” not saying whether the current strikes on U.S. air bases will end Iran’s response. Trump warned Iran to not retaliate against U.S. interests.
Trump’s comments about regime change irk Iranian officials, knowing that much discontent exists in Iran over mullah rule. Some recent polls showed up to 90% of Iran’s population would like to see a new progressive government. “If the current Iranian Regime is unable to MAKE IRAN GREAT AGAIN, why wouldn’t there be a Regime Change,” Trump said, but denying that’s his official U.S. policy. If Iran stops retaliating and lets the IAEA back to inspect what’s left of current enrichment sites, the war could settle down. Chances are that Iran won’t let in IAEA inspectors because they don’t want to admit to the damage done by U.S. air strikes. Araghchi sat through five rounds of nuke talks and knew they were going nowhere. Araghchi knows he serves at the pleasure of the Ayatollah and has no say on matters of state other than following orders.
What comes next in U.S. involvement in the Israeli-Ukraine war is anyone’s guess. Trump said if Iran retaliated he would hit them harder than before, something he must reconsider because it looks like Iran’s face-saving strike was largely symbolic. If the Ayatollah keeps striking U.S. assets, Trump may have no chose but to escalate attacks. Judging by rhetoric from Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, he sounds less belligerent and more willing to consider talking again to the U.S. Iran won’t admit the extent of destruction to its nuclear enrichment sites at Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan, keeping the illusion going that Iran can still keep enriching uranium to weapons grade material. Enriching fissile mater to 60% made no sense to the IAEA and U.S. nuclear officials because it’s only done to build a nuclear bomb. Iran still insists its nuke program was for peaceful purposes.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
