LOS ANGELES.–German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, 66, rejected 46-year-old Ukrainian President Zelensky’s request for a three billion euro defense package request that would have supplied T-air defenses missiles, Patriot air defense missiles, howitzers and ammunition. Scholz rejection delivers a blow to Ukraine’s efforts to battle the Kremlin over its Feb. 24, 2022 invasion, rapidly approaching its third year of death-and-destruction to Ukraine. Opting for war with the Kremlin, Zelensky has lost 20-25% of Ukraine’s prime sovereign territory along the Black Sea coast, leaving Ukraine far worse off than the start of the war. Zelensky promised to vanquish the Russian Federation but instead has destroyed his own country and lost key sovereign territory. Zelensky hoped that Vice President Kamala Harris would win the Nov. 5, 2024 presidential election to continue the Biden’s policy but that didn’t happen.
Scholz’s decision to hold back on German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius requests for more aid signals a change in war funding expected under President-elect Donald Trump when he takes office Jan. 20. Whatever happens to Scholz in upcoming German elections, it looks like Christian Democrats [CDU] leader Fredrich Merz look likely to win the Feb. 23 Bundestag election as Germany’s next chancellor. While things can change in the next month, Scholz showed that his Social Democrats [SPD] party is not out of it yet. But regardless of who wins, Trump isn’t going to continue the Biden war strategy, essentially giving Ukraine a blank check to battle the Kremlin. Trump wants a political settlement at the earliest possible time, signaling that Germany will follow along with what Trump wants to do.
Germany is Ukraine’s biggest backer in the European Union, knowing that the nearly three-year-old war has only left Ukraine in ruins. Biden insisted on EU cooperation for his proxy war in Ukraine with the Kremlin but, many EU leaders were skeptical of the war from the beginning. Scholz reluctance to hand over another three billion euros in new military hardware indicates that Scholz sees a change coming to the war. German magazine Der Spiegel said Scholz did not see the new defense package as needed, knowing Trump would push to see the conflict settled soon after taking office. Scholz hoped, before the election, to curry favor with Sahra Wagerknecht Alliance, a large pro-Russian anti-immigrant, left-wing party. Whether refusing Zelensky’s latest request helps Scholz or not, it makes no sense to escalate the Ukraine War when Trump is committed to ending it.
Scholz sees Zelensky’s desperate attempts in a new counteroffensive in the Kurk border region where Ukraine battles North Korean and Russian forces. Giving Zelensky another three billion euros in military hardware sends the exact wrong message to Kiev to move the conflict to the peace table. Zelensky has operated with a blank check from Biden but that’s all about to change and the EU will likely follow Trump’s lead. Certain EU countries like Poland and the Baltic States don’t trust Russian President Vladimir Putin and buy the argument that without the war Putin would march his forces into Poland or the Baltic States. Scholz hopes by rejecting Zelensky’s military request, he can win some votes with the Sahra Wanernknecht populist party before the Feb. 23 vote. Whether that can stop Merz’s CDU from taking over is anyone’s guess but at least it’s a start.
Scholz reads the situation in Ukraine correctly that Zelensky is desperate to lash out at Russia before Trump takes office. When you look at Ukraine’s destruction, you’d think Zelensky would want to work with Trump to find a political settlement. Zelensky has grown dependent on billions in U.S. government largess to fund his bankrupt government and the war. Zelensky fears that Trump will cut his funding if he doesn’t agree to end the Ukraine War. Scholz sent a loud message to Zelensky that the EU will follow Trump’s lead to resolve the conflict through peace talks not more war. Zelensky hoped he could find support in the EU to continue the war without the U.S. Zelensky knows that whatever commitments the EU made to continue the war, they would coordinate with the U.S. It’s Zelensky that must adjust his thinking to recognize that he must end the conflict.
Zelensky can continue invading Russia’s Kursk region but it’s not buying himself more support in the EU. Scholz has his reasons for blocking the delivery of new defense weapons to Ukraine but, clearly, the main reason is that he knows what Trump wants to do. Whether admitted or not by the fake news, Trump has a real relationship with Putin and will work it to end the Ukraine War at the earliest possible time. Whatever sacrifices Ukraine must make in terms of territory, it’s not Trump’s fault that Zelensky opted for war in 2022 with the Kremlin and was beaten badly by Putin. Trump knows the rules of war and realizes that that Putin can call the shots when it comes to any political settlement. Biden and Zelensky were dead wrong thinking they’d get more concessions from Putin keeping the war going. Now Zelensky must admit to Ukraine his three-year fiasco.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
