LOS ANGELES.–Speaking about the toppling of Bashar al-Assad’s Damascus government, Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the coup was sponsored by Israel and the United States, something so preposterous it’s laughable. Bashar al-Assad was toppled because Russia, Iran and Hezbollah could no longer protect al-Assad from a 13-year-insurgency, led yes by proxy war from the U.S. and Turkey, but, more recently, by 70-year-old Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Iran’s Ayatollah was neutralized by Israel along with its heavily funded and armed militia Hezbollah. Israel turned Hezbollah into mincemeat, killing all if its executive leadership including 64-year-old Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasralllah, killed in a targeted Israeli air strike. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei made some big mistakes taking on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who took Hezbollah apart.
Ayatollah Khamenei can’t admit to Iran his weakness and losses incurred after order Hezbollah to keep firing rockets into Israel since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas massacre. “What happened in Syra was mainly planned in the command rooms of America and Israel. We have evidence of this. A neighboring government of Syria was also involved,” Khaemei said, referring to Turkey. No question that Erdogan funded Abu Mohammed al-Jolani’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham rebel group, that brought many rebel groups into a coordinated assault on al-Assad’s Damacus government. Unknown to many, al-Jolani brought a fierce, well organized Muslim Uyghur fighting force, so-called Turkistan Islamic Party [TIP] and joined al-Jolani’s HTS rebel group that drove al-Assad from power. But the most important factor was Russia bogged down in Ukraine and Iran and Hezbollah with Israel.
Former President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden poured billions into the proxy war against the Syrian president Bashar al-Assad starting in 2012. By 2015 when 72-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin intervened to save al-Assad, over 500,000 Syrians were killed, another 10 million exiled, flooding Europe and Turkey, creating the biggest humanitarian crisis since WW II. Once Putin intervened, Obama-Biden proxy war fizzled, leaving al-Assad in power for the last nine years. Once Iran and Hezbollah miscalculated going to war against Israel and Putin was bogged down in Ukraine, they had nothing to give to save al-Assad’s Damascus government this time around. Turkey continue to fund the insurgency against al-Assad, eventually consolidating Syrian rebel groups in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, led by 42-year-old Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
Iran’s Aytollah Ali Khamenei hides his weakness taking on Israel, decimating its Lebanon-based Hezbollah terror group. Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem admitted that all of Hezbollah’s supply routes have been cut off where Hezbollah received in weapons from Iran. “Yes, Hezbollah has lost the military supply route through Syria at this stage, but this loss is a detail in the resistance’s work,” Oassem said in a televised speech. “A new regime could come and this rout could return to normal, and we could look for other ways,” Qassem said, knowing the risks of resistance taking on Israel. If Qassem wants to survive, he needs to back off his proxy war with Israel, realizing the Hamas is no more. If he continues to fire rockets into Israel, Hezbollah will meet the same fate as Hamas. When it comes to asking the new Syrian government to supply arms, they’re also a big risk.
Syria’s new government isn’t about to start partnering with Iran on anything that would incite a war with Israel. Al-Jolani leads a Sunni Islamic government, not the Alawite Shiite sect of Bashar al-Assad. When you consider that Hamas is a Sunni sect, there’s really nothing in common between radical Islamic states other than their hatred of Israel. Old Palestinian hatred toward Israel doesn’t translate into today’s world, where the Arab Gulf States and Egypt have gotten beyond Palestinian anti-Semitism. Ayatollah, who leads a Shiite state, has nothing in common with Sunni militant groups other than the fact that certain radical Palestinian groups want to continue the jihad against Israel. But for the rest of the Middle East, including the new Syrian government, they want no conflict with Israel, knowing how it would end up. Most Sunni states want to partner with Israel on joint ventures.
Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei finds himself the odd man out with his old resistance strategy partnering with Palestinian groups looking to go to war with Israel. Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Saud Arabia and other Arab States learned to get along with Israel over the last 76 years when Israel declared itself and independent state in 1948. Al-Jolani has a lot on his plate taking care of the needs of ordinary citizens with al-Assad no longer in power. If he wants to see a new prosperous Syria, he needs to steer clear of Iran with all its nonsense about the axis of resistance. Iran faces a new challenge with 78-year-old President Donald Trump coming to power. Any more moves by Iran to conspire against Israel would most certainly be met with a strong military response from Trump. Whether admitted to or not, Trump wouldn’t hesitate if necessary to deal with the Persian problem.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
