LOS ANGELES.–Attending the G20 in Rio de Janeiro, 66-year-old German Chancellor Olaf Scholz showed frustration with the final communiqué that mentioned little about Russia’s role in the Ukraine War. Scholz faces a tough reelection in March 2025, with criticism mounting from his center-right bloc CDU/CSU to support the delivery of German Taurus long-range cruise missiles, something Scholz has refused to give Ukraine. Ukraine’s 46-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky has asked Scholz for the long-range weapons only to be told “no,” largely due to Scholz reluctance to escalate the war. Everyone in Brussels-based EU knows that 78-year-old President Donald Trump wants a negotiated settlement as soon as he takes office Jan. 20, 2025. President Joe Biden gave Zelensky the green light Nov. 16 to use U.S.-made ATACMs long-range missiles to attack Russia.
Biden’s decision promptly echoed the same decision in the U.K. to use Storm Shadow long-range missiles, prompting a major escalation in the war at least for the next two months. Zelensky won’t hesitate when given the change to lash out at Russia anyway possible, knowing that things are about to change when Trump takes office. Scholz finds himself on the fence because he knows that Putin initiated the Feb. 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine. “1,000 days in which people have had to suffer for the blind megolamania, for the attention to supply expand his country by force,” Scholz said, obviously not in line with 79-year-old Brazilian President Lulu da Silva, a close economic partner in the BRICS economic bloc, led by 72-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin. Scholz walks a fine line condemning the Russian invasion while refusing Zelensky’s requests for long-range missiles.
Germany has a complicated relationship with Russia due to the hardship that lingers from WW II, where Hitler’s Third Reich caused some 28 million Russian casualties, more than any other combatant in WW II. So, when it comes to Scholz authorizing Zelensky to use Taurus long-range missiles, he’s not comfortable escalating the conflict. Biden’s handlers thought because Putin accepted 10,000 North Korean troops to evict Ukraine from occupying Russia’s Kursk border region, Biden decided to let Zelensky fire long-range U.S. missiles into Russia. Not one military expert expects Zelensky’s decision to change the battlefield, including all the losses of sovereign territory in Ukraine. Yet knowing that Biden is on the way out, why is he escalating the conflict? Throwaway missile attacks, at great expense to the U.S., only makes a bad situation worse in Ukraine.
Zelensky has gaslighted the Ukrainian people to think he’s winning the war in Ukraine. Yet the facts speak for themselves with Putin taking 20-25% of Ukraine’s best territory along the Black Sea coast. Once the Ukrainian people find out Zelensky has lied about the war, he’ll be chased out of Kiev. A recent Gallup poll indicates that 52% of Ukrainians now want a political settlement with Russia, whether or not it means trading land-for-peace. Putin isn’t about to give up territory he’s taken in Ukraine with the blood of Russian soldiers. When Trump takes over Jan. 20, 2024, he’ll try to resolve the conflict with private discussions with Putin and Zelensky, before recommending a potential settlement. Zelensky will go kicking-and-screaming knowing he must admit failure. Biden and Zelensky made a colossal blunder taking on the Russian military when simple compromise could have ended the war.
Putin didn’t ask for much to end the conflict in March 2022, only weeks after the Feb. 24, 2022 Russian invasion. He told Zelensky that if he recognized Russian sovereignty over Crimea and accepted independence of Donetsk and Luhnansk, he would remove the bulk of his forces from Ukraine. Zelensky rejected Putin’s offer and went to war with Biden footing the bill and supplying the weapons. So, when it comes to Scholz agreeing to escalate the war at this point, he sees no reason with Trump coming into office. Scholz said it was important for Germany “to do everything with prudence,” meaning it should not pour gasoline on the fire giving Zelensky more long-range missiles to attack Russia. Scholz wanted a stronger statement out of the G20 but also knows that Brazil, China and India take a more neutral position on what caused the war and how to end it.
Scholz made clear he wanted language in the G20 communique that put the blame for the Ukraine War on Russia, but, at the same time, didn’t want to rock the boat. “In my view, supplying cruise missiles would be a mistake for many reasons,” Scholz said. Scholz said he didn’t want to draw the German military into any conflict with the Kremlin. That’s the exact reason Zelensky was told “no” about NATO membership, now or in the future. NATO doesn’t want to fight Ukraine’s war, despite giving Zelensky the lethal weapons needed to fight the Kremlin. Scholz finds Germany’s leftist Greens, and center-right CDU/CSU bloc supporting the delivery to Ukraine of Taurus long-range missiles. Scholz is wise enough to know that Trump wants to end the war through political settlement, not continue to a reckless and costly war that only destroys Ukraine.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
