LOS ANGELES.–Hezbollah’s 63-year-old leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said today that Iran would retaliate for Israel’s April 1 attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killing Brigadier Gen. Mohammed Reza Zahedi, another Al Quds commander and seven others. With Hamas fighting to survive a six-month Israeli war, Iran has few options left to punish Israel for what looks like a direct strike on Iran’s diplomatic property. Israel claims that the five-story consulate building was used as a command-and-control center for Iran’s Al Quds force, once commanded by Gen. Qassem Soleimani before former President Donald Trump ordered his assassination Jan. 2, 2020. Iran responded Jan. 8, 2020 with a missile strike on U.S. Al-Assad airbase in Erbil, Iraq, injuring numerous U.S. soldiers. Unlike after Soleiman’s death, it looks like Hezbollah will do Iran’s dirty work.
Iran has been engaged in proxy war against Israeli, U.S. and allied targets in the Middle East and Horn of Africa for years. Iran funds-and-arms several terror groups across the region, including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen and ISIS-K in Afghanistan. Because of its proximity to Israel, it looks like Nasralllah has been given the green light by Iran’s 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Cracking down on dissent around Iran, the Ayatollah wants no part of any war with the U.S. or Israel, fearing he could loose his grip on power. Since the Sept. 16, 2022 Basij beating death of Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini, Iran’s mullah regime has dealt with nationwide protests calling for an end to Khamenei’s rule. So, when it comes to a retaliatory strike, the Ayatollah will rely on its proxies to attack Israel or the United States.
Nasrallah finds himself a dangerous grounds expecting to strike Israel, knowing that its almost daily border skirmishes with Israel have already faced Israel’s bombardment across Lebanon’s southern border. Any serious strike by Nasrallah could open up a new war front where Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] are forced to hit Beirut where the capital faces abject poverty and dilapidation for years of economic downturn. “Be certain that Iran’s response to the targeting of its Damascus consulate is inevitable,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech on Al Quds [Jerusalem] Day, an annual set of rallies for Palestinians. Ayatollah Khamenei, a Shiite Muslin, seeks a show of solidarity with his Sunni brothers in Gaza and the West Bank, where he funds proxy war against Israel year round. Iran, more than any other country, promotes revolution against Israeli rule.
If Nasrallah starts firing guided missiles at Tel Aviv, Haifa or other Israeli cites, Beirut could face a barrage of attacks. Calling the Damascus strike a “turning point,” it’s clear that Ayatollah handed off any response to Hezbollah who must fashion Iran’s retaliatory response. Nasrallah made clear that Hezbollah “does not fear war and is fully prepared for any war,” Nasrallah said. Nasrallah likes to talk tough but knows that Lebanon cannot take another war with Israel and his no intent of provoking 74-year-old Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has his run-ins with Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei applauded Hamas’s Oct. 7, 2023 slaughter of Israeli civilians but told Hamas leader in exile Ismail Hanijeh that Iran would not get involved in a direct confrontation with Israel. How that changed with the recent Israeli strike in Damascus is anyone’s guess.
Iran faces too much domestic unrest to risk a regional war with Israel, knowing it would certainly draw the U.S. into the conflict. Iranians still are still raw over the Ayatollah’s crackdown, involving mass arrests after Amini’s beating death by the Basij militia. So, when it comes to retaliation, Iran knows that Nasrallah has his constraints too when it comes to hitting Israel, knowing the consequences to Lebanon or Nasrallah himself. Nasrallah says he “welcomes” war with Israel but he’s all alone. No other Arab country has come to Hamas’s rescue, including Iran. Ayatollah told Haniyeh that he’s on his own taking on Israel. Most Mideast military experts thought Hamas had more fight against Israel, only to watch Hamas leadership hiding out in Gaza’s elaborate military tunnels. No other country has offered any military assistance to Hamas.
Iran finds itself with limited options when it comes to retaliating against Israel for its April 1 bombing of its Damascus consulate. As long as the Ayatollah funds proxy war against Israel and the U.S., he can expect occasional reprisals. Iran continues its proxy war against the U.S. and Israel, designed to show Sunni states that it backs the Palestinian cause of destroying the Jewish State. Hamas found out the hard way what happens when you make war against Israel, watching the already dilapidated Gaza Strip bombed into the Stone Age. Since Hamas seized the Gaza Strip from the Rmallah-based Palestinian Authority [PA] in 2007, it has had nearly continuous uprisings and wars, leaving the Gaza Strip in ruins. Oil-rich Gulf State have given up on Hamas, no longer willing to keep squandering donor cash on egregious corruption and unending wars.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
