LOS ANGELES.–Hitting Israel with drones and rocket in the disputed Shebaa Farms area of Southern Lebanon or Northern Israel, Hezbollah traded fire with Israel but only in a token way, not wanting to rock the boat. Hezbollah’s 63-year-old Supreme Leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has warned Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu that if he proceeds with his Gaza ground invasion, he would risk a two-front war, with Iran’s Shiite-backed Hezbollah militia rushing to Hamas’ defense. So far, Israel has gotten only token resistance, not much different that the endless cross-border attacks that have become all too routine. Nasrallah talks a good game but knows that Lebanon cannot face Israeli attacks on its beleaguered economy and government. Once the “Paris of the Mediterranean,” Lebanan has deteriorated into an impoverished, war-torn state, unable to sustain more conflict with Israel.
Lebanon was one of the six Arab State that attacked Israel in the Palestinian-led Six Day War, ending in disaster for all the belligerents seeking to destroy Israel in 1967. Hezbollah plays a part in Lebanon’s parliament, knowing its last war with Israel in 2006 caused widespread destruction to Lebanon. Hezbollah has been incorporated as a legitimate part in Lebanon’s parliament, forcing Nasralllah to play less Iran-backed terrorist and more diplomat in his advanced age. Firing rockets and drones into the disputed 15-square mile Shebaa Farms areas, Iran and Syria claim the Shebaa Farms area is Lebanese territory, despite controlled by Israel since the Six Day War. Nasrallah has been egged on by more radical Arab groups to defend Gaza by firing on Israel from the north. Nasrallah has been reluctant to get Lebanon engaged in a new war with Israel, knowing the outcome.
White House officials have been worried about a wider escalation of the war, dispatching two carrier strike groups to the Mediterranean off Israel to neutralize any attacks by Iran’s proxy groups. Iran uses various militias as proxy forces including Yemen’s Houthi rebels armed with Iranian Cruise missiles, drones and guided missiles. Israel found Hamas, also armed by Iran, firing medium-range guided missiles at Tel Aviv, in the past immune to Hamas’ short-range rockets. If Houthis or Hezbollah get involved in the Gaza fighting against Israel, they could pay a costly price, especially in Lebanon where the government wants no part of war with Israel. Israel struck the southern Lebanon town of Khyam about 6 km or 3.75 miles from Israeli border. Khyam’s Mayor Ali Rashed confirmed an Israeli strike on a home that caught fire near the Israeli border.
Israeli Defense Forces [IDF] have a policy of return fire from all hostile attacks. “The intensity of the shelling was higher than previous days. The shelling and the counter shelling were more than any previous level and included the whole area,” said Rashed. Nasrallah plans to deliver a speech on the Gaza War Frudat, after making threats against Israel, boasting of his firepower. Nasrallah knows that if he pushes things too far, Israel could start striking Lebanon, something he promised to leave out of the current Hamas War. Other Arab states, like the United Arab Emirates [UAE], Saudi Arabia or Egypt have sympathy for Palestinians but don’t want to take more Palestinian refugees into to their countries. Whatever past participation in wars against Israel, there’s no stomach for more war. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi wants no part of taking in hordes of Palestinian refugees.
El-Sisis has much trouble managing Egypt’s beleaguered economy and Palestinians ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, a terrorist group in Egypt seeking to oust El-Sisi. When it comes to other Arab states, they don’t have the resources or interest in re-settling Palestinian refugees. Even the Gulf Arab States, like Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE and Saudi Arabia don’t want to the burden of resettling Palestinian refugees. Hamas has watched the world pass them bye, hoping to whip up more anti-Semitism, something Iran plays on to keep its population in chains. Iran continues the same anti-Semitic tropes seen in the Nazi era where Jews were compared to rats to whip up German anger about the longstanding inflation and depresssion, costing Germans wheel barrels’ full of Deutsch Marks to buy a loaf of pumpernickel. Iran refers to Israel as Zionists, much like the Nazi’s in WW II.
Whatever skirmishes take place near the Lebanon border, they’re all symbolic to make Nasrallah look like the tough rooster ready to take on the Zionist beast. But apart from Nasrallah’s bark, there’s no stomach in Lebanon for Nasrallsh to do anything other than symbolic resistance. Hams got itself into another mess with Israel deliberately because it’s once again run out of cash and needs to be bailed out by the oil-rich Gulf States. Whether Saudi Arabia’s de facto leader Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman goes along with the old script is anyone’s guess. Before the Oct. 7 ISIS-like slaughter of Israeli civilians, Bin Salman was ready to announce new economic ties with Israel. Whether the Hamas war derails things for a while, it’s hard to stop progress. Gazans and West Bank residents could enjoy in Israel’s prosperity by forming peace treaties that allow for economic development and peace.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
