Ukrane’s elation after getting the green light to receive old U.S.-Lockheed-Martin made F-16 jets from Sweden and Denmark marks a PR win for Kiev in its ongoing war with the Kremlin but not much more. Ukraine’s 45-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky asked for F-16s from the Feb. 24, 2022 start of the Ukraine War, something 80-year-old President Joe Biden resisted, knowing it would escalate the conflict. Biden gave his blessings last week for the transfer of some 60 jets to the inexperienced Ukraine air force. Mired in trench warfare with the Kremlin, it’s doubtful that F-16s will tip the balance of the Ukraine conflict. Russia has the means to shoot F-16 down, not to mention destroy runways and air plane hangers. Biden’s decision to supply F-16s to Kiev shows that he has no intent during his first term or possibly next term to negotiate and end to the conflict.
Meeting with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen over its transfer of F-16s, Zelensky looks euphoric over the prospects of having another tool in his arsenal to continue to battle the Kremlin. Putin knows how to engage in long-term grinding warfare, something he did in Afghanistan, Chechnya and other places. Russian President Vladimir Putin, fresh off offering condolences for the Aug. 23 crash of Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Preigozhin’s private jet, killing Prigozhin, his second in command and eight others, isn’t worried about dealing with F-16s in the future. Biden and Zelensky are deluding themselves thinking that F-16s changes the outcome of the war, seeking to drive Russian troops out of Ukraine. No military expert thinks in the short or long run, F-16s make much difference in the grinding trench warfare needed to reclaim Ukraine’s lost sovereign territory.
Biden and Zelensly still think that the longer the war goes, the more they can degrade the Russian military, eventually outlasting the Kremlin and preventing the Russian army from waging war. Miscalculating Putin’s resolve, Biden and Zelensky have an unending war on their hands, something that could last, like Afghanistan over 20 years. Zelensky said he’ll expel Russia by year’s end, now saying that Kiev will not be pressured by the West to finish the job. Zelensky says he’s now looking at July 2024, something that promises to get pushed back. So when GOP presidential candidate debate continued U.S. involvement, they must calculate the damage to the U.S. Treasury at a time of economic uncertainty. Even in booms times, elected officials must decide whether it should commit untold billions to pay for bankrupt Kiev government and ongoing war with the Kremlin.
Replaced in by the F-35, it’s only a matter of time before Zelensky blames the aged F-16s for why Kiev can’t make enough progress driving Russian troops out of Ukraine. Zelensky keeps making excuses why the Ukraine military can’t make the kind of progress it seeks in driving Russia out of Ukraine. Whatever the weapons, it’s never enough for Zelensky who asked for a no-fly zone and U.S. and NATO troops. If Biden really thought that Russia threatened other countries in Europe, the U.S. and NATO would commit troops to driving Russia out of Ukraine. Zelensky opted for war over negotiation because he’s been receiving billions in U.S. aid to fund his Kiev government and the war against the Kremlin. Eighteen months of war, Zelensky has lost some 25% of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, including it Black Sea coast and strategic ports, essentially land-locking Kiev.
No doubt that the F-16s are a substantial upgrade from Ukraine’s Mig-29 floggers, old Soviet-era equipment capable of inflicting considerable damage with skilled pilots. Training Ukraine’s young pilots on F-16s wont be easy, taking more time . Justin Bronk, senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, said the F-16 is “complet aircraft” that would “take years to train journeyman or master-level maintainers,” to service the jets. Netherlands and Sweden agreed donate F-16s to Ukraine because they’ve been promised by the Pentagon to upgrade air forces with more modern F-35 planes. Gen. James Heker, commander of the U.S. Air Force in Europe, said that “young pilots that barely have any hours. “That all is going to take time . . . so that’s why it’s going to be at least until next year until you see F-16s in Ukraine. It’s not going to be the silver bullet,” said Bronk.
When Ukraine gets its F-16 fleet and necessary training, what’s going to be Zelensky’s excuse when he can’t expel Russian troops from Ukraine? Instead of negotiating for a ceasefire and peace, Zelensky shows no interest in dealing with Putin, someone he calls a war criminal. Putin sees the war in Ukraine as one between the U.S. and NATO, not primarily with Kiev. Putin wants Biden to stop supplying Ukraine with lethal weapons, something he’s refused to do. Meanwhile, Ukraine suffers more destruction and carnage, all because world leaders can’t figure out how to convince Biden and Zelensky that war is not the answer. F-16s only delay inevitable peace talks, even where they force Zelensky into making concessions. Zelensky wouldn’t have to make so many concessions if he didn’t opt for war against the Kremlin. Zelensky must be told he doesn’t have a blank check.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
