Former President Donald Trump, 76, leads Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-Fl..) in a new Harvard CAPS/ Harris poll showing DeSantis slipping, with Trump leading him in head-to-head matchup 46% to 23%. DeSantis slipped 5% from a month ago when the same poll last reported results. Respondents in the CAPS/Harris poll said 39% of primary voters would back DeSantis for the GOP nomination, 10 points less when the same poll was taken in January. When looking at former Vice President Mike Pence, only 17% said they would support his nomination, with only 10% saying they would back former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Despite all of Trump’s legal issues, he still commands a powerful position with GOP voters, related to the fact that he’s now seen as an underdog, with so many Republicans, Democrats and the press opposed to his third run for president.
DeSantis’ drop in the polls related to the fact that he hasn’t announced his candidacy for the 2024 nomination, nor does he plan to for months. Whether admitted to or not, DeSantis, at age 44, is still a political neophyte, serving as Florida’s governor since Jan. 8, 2019. DeSantis had Trump’s full backing in 2019, leading some voters to think that he wouldn’t run against his past mentor. DeSantis holds many of Trump’s political views but has recently pranked Washington and New York by sending illegal immigrants on busses to both sanctuary cities. DeSantis embraced Trump’s views on the border, especially building out his border wall, designed, at least symbolically, to take a stand on illegal immigration. In the 2020 campaign, Democrats and the press attacked Trump for his position on immigration, essentially saying that the former president was xenophobic and racist.
DeSantis has been seen by GOP voters as a lighter version of Trump, holding his America First agenda, designed to keep the U.S. out of costly foreign wars. With GOP war hawks like Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) backing 80-year-old President Joe Biden’s war in Ukraine, Trump is the only one in the GOP to oppose the war, especially sending Ukraine more cash-and-weapons. As the campaign heats up, look to Trump to step up his attacks on Biden for wasting U.S. taxpayer cash on Ukraine. So far, Biden commands a consensus on the Ukraine War but recent polls show the American public losing interest in funding the Ukraine War. Once Trump makes ending the Ukraine War a major campaign issue, it will force all GOP candidates to get off the fence and take a position on Biden’s costly and destructive proxy war against Russia. DeSantis can certainly agree to end the Ukraine War.
DeSantis has not yet become a real candidate yet in any polling situation. Respondents to polls asked questions about who do you favor in a one-to-one match-up can’t make sense until DeSantis formerly announces his plans. Once he declares for 2024, the polls will take him more seriously than as a hypothetical idea. Unlike past GOP primary races, there won’t be a repeat of 2016 when some 20 GOP candidates jumped into the race, handing Trump the nomination. When you consider a number of Democrat, Republican and independent voters don’t want two geriatric candidates fighting it out, it will give a real advantage to DeSantis to find the right issues resonating with voters. One thing voters don’t want is to see another aging nominee win the presidency, considering Biden will turn 83 Nov. 20, 2024. Most voters don’t want another four years of an aged president to run the economy and foreign policy.
Most voters don’t take the 2024 presidential race seriously this far out from having a slate of viable candidates. Once DeSantis declares himself, it’s going to be a new ballgame with voters realizing that a candidate in his prime is tossing his hat in the right. Trump carries so much baggage from his presidency and the fallout from Nov. 3, 2020 lost to Biden, that it’s time to move on to a fresh face. Whatever DeSantis lacks in experience, he can be paired with a more experienced politician, ready and willing to provide balance to the ticket. When you consider a 46-year-old DeSantis running against an 83-year-old incumbent, it would be difficult for voters not to pick up the basic contrast. Voters see the damage Biden has done to the economy but certainly to foreign policy where the country is at war with the Russian Federation and close to war with Communist China.
Harvard’s CAPS/Harris poll says little about how DeSantis will fair in any real match up with Trump. Whatever one thinks now, things are going to swing wildly once GOP, Democrats and independents know there’s a real alternative to Trump and Biden. Biden hasn’t listened to any voice inside his party that thinks he should step aside for a younger candidate. Biden used his Feb. 7 State of the Union Speech as a political stump speech to show his energy and spunkiness. But what Biden really showed is he’s ready to hang it up, knowing all the problems facing the country. One wrong move in Ukraine or China could result in a two-front World War III, destabilizing world peace. As it stands now the U.S. and world simply can’t take four more years of a geriatric politician pretending he can handle the job. Whether Democrats like DeSantis or not, the contrast with an 83-year-old incumbent would be dramatic.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
