Showing that it takes two to tango, the Ukrainian military unleashed a new wave of drone warfare inside Russia, the exact thing the Pentagon opposed in the Ukraine War. Uraine’s 44-year-old President Volodymyr Zelensky thinks turnaround is fair play, with Russian’s already using unmanned aerial vehicles on Ukrainian targets. Reports of Iran supplying Russia with Kamikaze drones have been widely reported. Russia’s military confirmed that Iran’s Kamikaze drones don’t work well in cold weather yet Ukraine’s military has been modifying Russian-made Tupolev TU-141 or TU-143 Soviet era unmanned aerial vehicles for the Russian theater. President Joe Biden, 80, limited the range of U.S.-made HIMARS missile defense systems to a range of only 50 miles, hoping to keep the conflict in Ukraine’s borders. Drone attacks in Russia open a new escalation in the conflict.
Kiev reported that its main military defense contractor was working on a new generation of combat drones capable of going 1,000 km or 665 miles. Hitting two Russian air bases killing at least three Russian service man and damaging two combat planes takes the conflict to a new level. Last Thursday, Russia confirmed that the Kursk airbase near the Ukrainian border was set ablaze by a Ukrainian drone attack. Military analysts see the drone attacks as retaliation for ongoing Russian air strikes on Ukraine’s electrical grid and water supply. “It’s a bigger image blow that a military one,” said Oleh Zhanov, a military analyst based in Kiev. “It means there are no sites in Western Russia that are out of Ukrainian reach.” Ukraine’s military has launched a new asymmetric warfare strategy, putting Russia on notice that no holds are barred as the nine-month long conflict grinds on.
Questions of Russian retaliation for attacking airbases in Russia are all but certain. Zelensky thinks Russian has tapped itself out with aerial strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. Striking targets inside in Russia sends a strong message to 70-year-old Russian President Vladimir Putin. Military analysts couldn’t explain why Russia’s S-400 missile defense system didn’t stop the Ukrainian-built drones from hitting targets inside Russia. “It would be visible on radars: the question arises of how this done could fly from Ukraine through Russian territory and be visible to S-400 units and hit strategic bombers at a military base,” asked Olekandr Musiyenko, a Kiev military analyst. “We could conclude that Russian air defenses cannot guarantee the protection of their strategic aeorodromes and that they effectively admit this,” Musiyenko said. Ukraine has entered a new bold phase in the war.
Ukraine could not start drone warfare inside Russia without Pentagon approval. Kremlin Spokeswoman Maria Zakharhova has said that if Ukraine starts hitting targets in Russia, they would hold the U.S. accountable as an enemy combatant. “It does show that they can operate in Russia at will, and that will deeply worry the Russians,” said an unnamed Western military analyst. French President Emmanuel Macron, who was hosted by the White House last week, didn’t want to see an escalation in the conflict. Macron has been among a handful of world leaders looking for a way out of the conflict, not pressing the issue to full-scale warfare that could lead to WW III. U.S. officials think that Russia will be forced to relocate its strategic bombers now that Kiev is capable to hitting airbases inside Russia. Ukraine’s new drone technology opens a new asymmetric front to the nine-month old war.
With U.S. cash and weapons, Kiev shows no interest in backing down until Putin agrees to pull his troops out of Ukrainian territory. Kiev wants Russia to agree to pay reparations to Ukraine for all the damage nflicted over the last nine months. Zelensky has talked openly about Kiev developing an army of predator drones capable of hitting Russia at any location in a 1,000 km radius. Reverse engineering Soviet-made TU-143 drones with explosive comes full circle for Russia. Zelensky thinks the future of modern warfare involves using unmanned aerial vehicles to deliver ordnance to Russian targets. Drone manufacturer Ukroboroprom said they’re completing testing on drones with a 1,000 km range. Ukraine makes its weapons developments known to the public for the purpose of warning Russia of more fireworks to come. Zelensky thinks he’s giving Putin reason to pull out his troops.
U.S. and EU officials could be in for a new phase of the Ukraine War where Russia begins to retaliate against Western targets, not just inside Ukraine. Biden must decide how far he’s willing to push the conflict, clearly, Zelensky prefers to continue the conflict with the Kremlin. “Aerial unmanned systems come in handy, and the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky is paying special attention to their development,” said Ukroboroprom Director Yuriy Gusev, calling for asymmetric warfare with Russia. Ukraine’s military while not disclosing its battlefield losses has suffered every bit as much as Russian. Especially during the cold winter months, Gusev sees the Ukrainian military ramping up drone warfare with Russia, putting pressure on Putin to finally end the conflict. Whether or not that’s wish fulfillment, Ukraine’s military has gone ahead with asymmetric warfare.
About the Author
John M. Curtis writes politically neutral commentary analyzing spin in national and global news. He’s editor of OnlineColumnist.com and author of Dodging The Bullet and Operation Charisma.
