Faced with a controversial recall election today, 53-year-old Gov. Gavin Newsom looks poised for a big victory today against a Republican-driven recall capitalizing on voter frustration over lock-downs from the deadly novel coronavirus. California has had 4,503,402 cases and 67,356 deaths, by far the most deaths of any state. Newsom once predicted in Feb. 2020 that Covid-19 would infect 55% or 25 million California residents, prompting the most extreme measures in terms of lock-downs of any state. But regardless of Newsom’s failed predictions, the public still sees him as doing more than this Republican rivals, especially conservative talk show host Larry Elder. Newsom learned quickly from President Joe Biden that the Covid-19 issue was the key to beating former President Donald Trump. Democrats and the media blamed Trump for the devastating effect of Covid-19 on the United States.
Newsom always had a big advantage over a long-shot recall because Democrats enjoy and two-to-one registration advantage over Republicans, making the recall an uphill battle. Then you add to that the GOP front-runner conservative talk show host Larry Elder telling the public he thinks vaccines and masks should be optional in California motivated the Democrat base to get out the vote. With universal mail-in ballots going out to every registered voter, it made Elder’s attempt to unseat Newsom next to impossible. Democrats in the 2020 presidential election also had a 20% registration advantage over Republicans, making it more difficult for Trump to overcome a strong Democrat turnout, made easy by universal mail-in ballots. Now California’s big Democrat majority gets universal mail-in ballots to defeat the Republican-driven recall election on Sept. 14.
Former President Donald Trump never understood the public disgust with his response to the Covid-19 global pandemic. Biden took the pandemic seriously, frequently appearing masked-up, avoiding public venues to prevent himself from possible Covid exposure. Trump, on the other hand, mocked Biden throughout the 2020 campaign for not going more public in his campaign appearances. When Trump was hospitalized for Covid-19 Oct. 6, 2020, that was the end of his campaign only one month out from Election Day. It showed the public that he didn’t take the virus seriously, making Biden’s major campaign issue. Now Newsom plays off the same theme that his Republican rival Elder doesn’t take the Covid-19 pandemic seriously brought out the Democrat vote to assure that Newsom would stay governor. Whatever blight exists in California, voters cared more about Covid-19.
California voters oppose the recall because Democrats enjoy and two-to-one registration advantage. When you add to that the Covid-19 issue, it’s loser for Republicans despite Elder claiming, like Trump, that there’s going to be voter fraud in the state. Trump couldn’t fathom the fact that his communication team led by neophyte Hope Hicks couldn’t make a dent in the Democrat and press narrative that Trump botched the novel coronavirus response. Whether true or not, Trump was blamed for not doing enough to stop the spread of the virus that swept the country like wildfire. Newsom’s perceived, like Biden, as the best fireman to extinguish the Covid-19 crisis, with Republicans in general blamed for not doing enough. Unlike 2003 when former Gov. Gray Davis was recalled and replaced with former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, today’s electorate has changed.
California no longer has enough of a Republican base to pull off another recall, certainly not with a candidate that downplays the Covid-19 pandemic in the state. Watching cases, hospitalizations and deaths rise due to the Delta variant has helped Newsom, just liked in helped Biden in 2020. Had Covid no longer been an issue on voters’ minds, Elder might have given Newsom a run for his money. California faces intolerable levels of homelessness, high individual and business taxes, high gas prices, excessive rents and real estate values, persistent drought, wildfires and an exodus from the state because its become uninhabitable for ordinary citizens. But all those issues that plague the state under Newsom’s leadership pale in comparison to voters’ fears about Covid-19. So when the vote tallies show Newsom with a big margin beating back the recall, don’t be surprised.
Republicans are a shrinking political party not only in California but around the country. As long an open border policy continues to change the state’s demographics, California is not a safe haven for Republicans. Nothing in the future looks to change registration trends favoring Democrats. Elder got a ton of publicity running against Newsom but his chances in the recall or in the 2022 governor’s election are slim-and-none. Democrats and the press have equated Elder with Trump, leaving him radioactive to run for public office now or in the future. Elder’s controversial statements on vaccines and masks also put him out of mainstream voters, including independents that make up about 60% of voters. Whether Newsom’s challenged in 2020 by another Democrat is anyone’s guess. Not likely. But for today’s recall election California voters aren’t receptive to Elder’s message.
