Putting pressure on Iran Nuke Deal negotiators in Vienna, the U.N.’s International National Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA] confirmed that Iran’s been enriching uranium to 90%, considered weapons grade material. When former President Barack Obama entered into nuke negotiations with Iran in 2013, he was concerned about Iran’s breakout time to a nuclear bomb. Iran has consistently denied that its nuclear enrichment program was about building an A-Bomb, saying its program was only for peaceful purposes like reactor fuel or medical isotopes. Western scientists and intel officials concluded that Iran was working on a nuclear device, prompting the Obama administration to enter into the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA] to limit Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for $1.6 billion in cash and $150 billion in sanctions relief, something Iran gladly took.
Former Secretary of State John Kerry and Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif worked for two years finally concluding the agreement July 15, 2015. When 75-year-old former President Donald Trump came to power Jan. 20, 2017, his administration was skeptical of Iran’s commitments because the JCPOA was not verifiable. IAEA inspectors were only allowed to go to designated enrichment sites, not secret military facilities that were strictly off limits. So when Iran started a proxy war in 2015 using Yemen’s Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia, Trump had no leverage to stop Iranians from attacking the Riyadh International Airport and Aramco oil refineries, Trump had little choice but to cancel the JCPOA May 8, 2018. Since then, the P5+1, without that U.S., have tried to convince Iran to return to JCPOA compliance. Iran has resisted a return to the Nuke Deal unless the U.S. ends all sanctions.
Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei started ramping up uranium enrichment in April after an explosion and power loss to is Natanz enrichment facility. Iran blamed Israel for sabotaging its underground enrichment activity, prompting Khamenei to apply more pressure on Western powers, especially the U.S. to lift all sanctions imposed by Trump. Iran wants the Biden administration to return the original JCPOA without conditions, eliminating all economic sanctions imposed by Trump. Under the JCPOA, Iran was allowed to enrich uranium to 3.67% or at least for IAEA inspectors, not permitted to visit secret military enrichment sites. So whatever Iran promised in terms of compliance, it was only on approved sites, making the entire agreement a sham. Now the Ayatollah wants to reinstate the JCPOA as originally negotiated by Obama.
Biden has bigger fish to fry in Kabul trying to evacuate some 25,000 U.S. civilians in addition to thousands of Afghans unwilling to live under Taliban rule. Iran wants to return to the original JCPOA because it’s easy to cheat, enriching uranium to specified limits but only at facilities approved by the IAEA. Iran continues its malign, state-sponsored terrorism activities, blowing up tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman using Limpet mines, interfering with international shipping in open seas. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard swift boats routinely harass oil tankers in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, hitting an Israeli tanker July 31 with a predator drone, killing two sailors. Biden wants to revive the JCPOA but a what expense to the United State, Israel and other Gulf State allies, all of whom don’t trust Iran but, more importantly, believe Iran is working on a nuclear device.
Iran has been sending out signals to the European Union [EU] that the Persian Nation is willing to rejoin the JCPOA as soon at the U.S. releases all sanctions. If Biden goes that route, the U.S. will have zero leverage with Iran, allowing it to pursue its proxy wars in the Middle East, especially on Saudi Arabia and Israel. “If the other parties return to their obligations under the nuclear accord and Washington fully and verifiably lifts its unilateral and illegal sanctions . . .all of Iran’s mitigation and oountermeasures will be reversible,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh, dangling a carrot to Biden. But if Iran continues to stonewall IAEA inspectors, returning to the JCPOA is worthless when it comes to preventing Iran from developing an A-bomb. No one in the West believes that enriching uranium mental to 90% is for “peaceful purposes,” knowing its weapons grade fissile material.
Biden’s got a lot on his plate dealing with the evacuation in Afghanistan, putting new nuke talks in Vienna on the back burner. With the press hammering him for a disorganized exit from Afghanistan, the last thing Biden needs is to jump back into an unverifiable JCPOA, essentially ceding weapons grade material to Tehran. Iran’s Khamenei knows how to manipulate the West into getting what he wants, knowing the clock ticks on Iran’s breakout time to an A-bomb. Once Biden re-enters the JCPOA, the U.S. will have no leverage to insist that Iran verify in nuclear enrichment program. IAEA inspectors need access to Iran’s secret nuclear sites where Western scientists believe Iran is dangerously close to weapons grade metal needed for the core of a nuclear device. No one, other that Iran, believes that Iran’s feverish pursuit of weapons grade uranium is for power plants or medical isotopes.
