Iran’s 81-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei got what he wanted when 60-year-old former Chief of Iran’s Supreme Court Ibrahim Raisi won the June 19 election. No moderates or reformists were allowed to run, with most voters staying home, knowing election was rigged. Khamenei got a successor 65-year-old Gholam Hussein Mohseni-Ejei got shuffled to head Iran’s Supreme Court, in a clear Mullah power grab by Khaemei. While Raisi hasn’t yet been seated as Iran’s new president, it’s clear that Iran will no longer show flexibility needed to restart the July 15, 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JSPOA]. Former President Donald Trump, 75, cancelled the agreement May 8, 2018 negotiated by 59-year-old former President Barack Obama and his 77-year-old former Secretary of State John Kerry over a two-year period. Obama hailed the agreement as delaying Iran’s pursuit of an A-bomb.
Trump cancelled the JCOPA May 8, 2018 because Iran continued its proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Watching Yemen’s Houthi rebels attack Saudi Arabia with drones and Cruise missiles, Trump had enough of Iran’s bravado, once Obama gave Iran billions of dollars and sanctions relief. After six rounds of indirect talks in Vienna, Iran suspended talks while they transition to a new government with Raisi taking over for 72-year-old former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Since third-party talks began in April, Khameni insisted that to re-instate the JCPOA Biden must remove all sanctions imposed by Trump. Biden’s been holding firm that Iran must be in full compliance with the JCPOA, limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment to 3.5%. Since ending the deal May 8, 2018, Khamenei has given the green light to ramp up uranium production to 60%, just below weapons grade fissile material.
Biased U.S. press reports all blame Trump for canceling the deal but, at the time, Iran was involved in intractable proxy wars with Saudi Arabia and Israel. Even today, as Biden looks to re-instate the JCPOA with the P5+1, including U.K, France, Germany, Russia and China, Biden holds onto the leverage given to him by Trump. Only the fake news media blames Trump for backing out of the deal. But Iran shows no signs of desisting with its proxy wars against Saudi Arabia, and certainly not Israel. All the press talks about is Trump abandoning a rotten deal that gave Iran the cash needed to go on the warpath in the Mideast and North Africa. “We’re in a transition period as a democratic transfer of power is underway in our capital. [Vienna talks] must thus obviously wait our new administration. This is what every democracy demands,” said Seyyed Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister.
Whatever the communication with Iran, there are always excuses, this time about Iran’s “democracy.” Araghchi knows the election was rigged and no democracy exists under Iran’s brutal theocracy, where only one dictator, the Ayatollah Khameni, calls the shots. With Iran’s new conservative Mullah government, it’s doubtful that Khaemein or Raisi will make any concessions, especially on scaling back uranium production. “We also hope they don’t think they will get more that the previous government because they are tougher,” said an unnamed State Department official. “It’s not about being tougher, it’s about fully implementing the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal . . . “ said the anonymous official. Biden looks committed to Trump’s position of getting Iran back in compliance to the original JCPOA agreement by verifying that Iran no longer enriches uranium beyond the 3.5% limit.
When the Obama administration cut the deal with Iran, they were convinced that Iran was close to an A-bomb, something denied by Iran from the beginning. All the effort put into Pakistan-designed centrifuges attempted to stockpile enough fissile material to eventually build a bomb. No one in the West believed that Iran’s nuclear enrichment program was about peaceful purposes, including power plants or medical isotopes. While the P5+1 provided a backdrop, they had almost nothing to do with the negotiations between Kerry and Iran’s 62-year-old Foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif. Zarif ran afoul with the Ayatollah when he was overheard April 26 criticizing Iran’s Revolutionary Guards for having too much power in Iran’s government. Zarif hasn’t had much to say since, most likely will get replaced once Raisi gets sworn in Aug. 5 as Iran’s president of the parliament.
Khamenei has little good to say about the U.S. in the Vienna talks to re-instate the JCPOA. “Westerners do not help us, they hit whenever they can,” Khamenei said. “They don’t help, the are enemies,” Khamenei said, letting Biden know Iran’s official position. Whatever the prospects of returning to the 2015 Nuke Dealis anyone’s guess. What’s known for sure is that Iran’s has turned more conservative, if that’s possible “If it continues on this path, not only will it continue to delay when and agreement to lift sanctions can be reached, but it risks jeopardizing the very possibility of concluding the Vienna talks and restoring the JCPOA,” said French Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Agnes vo der Muhll. Whether the JCOPA is restored or not, Biden must deal with the fact that the agreement was never verified. U.N. weapons inspectors were never allowed in Iran’s secret military enrichment sites.
